Terence Crawford vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas – 12/14/19 Boxing Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Terence Crawford and Egidijus Kavaliauskas fight Saturday at Madison Square Garden for the WBO welterweight title.

Terence Crawford enters this fight with a 35-0 record that includes 26 knockouts. This will be Crawford’s sixth fight since 2017, and he’s coming off an April win over Amir Khan. Crawford make light work of a washed up Khan, knocking him down in the fist round and landing 42 percent of his total punches through a six round fight. It was an easy title defense for Crawford and keeps his name in the conversation for best pound for pound. Six of Crawford’s last eight finishes have taken place in the eighth round or earlier, so he’s proven to be a quick finisher who doesn’t waste time. Crawford now hopes to defend his belt for a third straight bout. Crawford is 32 years old, stands at 5’8”, has a 70-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Crawford is one of the best technical fighters in the sport, as he’s polished defensively with great head and shoulder movement, and he allows very few rounds for his opponent to get comfortable. Combine Crawford’s defense with his ability to fight out of either stance, and he’s very tough to figure out over the course of 12 rounds. Crawford has barely been touched in each of his last three bouts. Offensively, Crawford is a terrific counterpuncher and has a very strong right hand. This will be Crawford’s fourth career fight in New York. 

Egidijus Kavaliauskas enters this fight with a 21-0-1 record that includes 17 knockouts. Kavaliauskas has won five of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a March draw against Ray Robinson. Kavaliauskas is from Lithuania and has a decorated amateur career, which includes a bronze medal in the World Championships. Kavaliauskas hasn’t fought many notable names and his two best wins probably came against Mahonri Montes and David Avanesyan. Kavaliauskas is 31 years old, stands at 5’9”, has a 71-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Kavaliauskas has some impressive punching power and a very strong right hand that’s dropped majority of his opponents. Kavaliauskas has been the aggressor in most of his fights and doesn’t waste much time swinging for the fences. The problem is Kavaliauskas has a long windup and can be a bit wild with his offensive attack, leaving himself too exposed for counters. Kavaliauskas better be sharper with his attack and crisper with his hands or this is going to be a short fight. This will be Kavaliauskas’ first career fight in New York.

I’m all for guys getting paydays and shots at the throne, but Kavaliauskas hasn’t been in the ring with anybody close to Crawford’s skillset and his wide punches are going to get him hurt. Every time Kavaliauskas looks to land a big shot, he’s going to get tagged with him being so exposed. Kavaliauskas can’t drop his hands or lean into his punches, or he’s going to get dropped and badly hurt. It’s a fight worth watching because it’s one of the best in the business, but Crawford is going to win this fight by knockout. There’s not a whole lot to say here or another outcome that’s a realistic possibility.

Crawford by stoppage before the eighth round.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Terence Crawford By KO / TKO