Boise State vs South Florida Prediction 8/28/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Boise State Broncos and South Florida Bulls meet Thursday in college football action at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s a Boise State vs South Florida Prediction. This article will include a Boise State vs South Florida Pick.

Boise State Broncos Betting Preview

Boise State won 12 games last season and enters the second full season under coach Spencer Danielson. Despite key losses, Boise State is favored to win the MWC and a contender for the playoffs.

Boise State no longer has workhorse Ashton Jeanty, but quarterback Maddux Madsen returns after a 3,000-yard season and 23 touchdowns. A receiving duo of Chris Marshall and Latrell Caples has the chance to be special if they can both stay healthy. Boise State also has the best offensive line in the MWC, which is key with the style of offense the Broncos like to run.

Defensively, Boise State returns six starters, including Jayden Virgin-Morgan, who had double-digit tackles for loss and Marco Notarainni, who was a first-team MWC selection last season. Ty Benefield and A’Marion McCoy are experienced players in the secondary who will hold down the fort, and Notre Dame transfer Jaden Mickey should make an impact right away.

Boise State won’t spam the run game like it did a year ago, but this is still the class of the MWC until proven otherwise. 

South Florida Bulls Betting Preview

South Florida has won seven games in back-to-back seasons and enters year three under coach Alex Golesh. USF won a combined four games from 2020-22, so this is a program that has turned around quickly.

South Florida has a playmaker at quarterback in Byrum Brown, who has thrown for 4,500 yards and rushed for 17 touchdowns. A running back duo of Cartevious Norton and Nay’Quan Wright is possibly the best in the AAC. Offensive lineman Connor McLaughlin comes over from Stanford and can really anchor this unit up front. Receiver Keshaun Singleton showed flashes last season, averaging 15.7 yards per catch and scoring three times on 26 receptions.

Defensively, USF was awful, so there’s not a lot to expect here. South Florida was 119th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense. The good news is the Bulls return their best defensive player in Jhalyn Shuler, who had 61 tackles and two interceptions. USF is going to have a hard time building on seven wins if the defense doesn’t improve. In fact, it’s a miracle South Florida had the success it did a year ago with the defense being so bad.

Why the South Florida Bulls will win

• South Florida has won three of its last four games in August.
• Boise State has lost three of its last four season openers.
• South Florida has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three season openers.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• South Florida has lost each of its last 11 games against AP-ranked teams at Raymond James Stadium.
• The favorite has won each of Boise State’s last 21 games.
• The favorite has covered the spread in five of South Florida’s last six games at Raymond James Stadium.
• South Florida has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games.

South Florida Bulls Player Prop Facts

• Cartevious Norton led Charlotte for rush attempts (129) last season.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Jayden Virgin-Morgan led Boise State for sacks (10.0) last season.

Boise State vs South Florida Prediction

South Florida has been a sneaky tough team to play at home over the years and the crowd should be out in full force for this one. Brown is a playmaker quarterback who can make things interesting. With all of that said, we need to see USF improve defensively before we can trust in a spot like this. Boise State is the far and away more balanced team, so it will take an extra point or two to pay serious attention toward the Bulls. Not an easy game for Boise State and this should be competitive for a while. I just don’t trust South Florida to get enough stops based on last season. Give me Boise State by a touchdown.