| MATCHUP | Warriors Hawai'i | Falcons Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Where | Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO | |
| When | Saturday, September 27, 2025 | |
| Time | 04:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | FS1 | |
Air Force Preview
Air Force has a 1-2 record this season and are sitting on the 12th place of the Mountain West Conference. They are 1-2 ATS, 3-0 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 home record and 0-1 away record. The Falcons are coming off a 37-49 home loss to Boise State and are playing Hawaii, Navy and Nevada-Las Vegas next.Offensively, the Falcons average 38.7 points per game, which ranks 32nd in the nation. Defensively, they allow 37.0 points per game, which is 128th. Air Force averages 461.7 total yards per game, with 267.0 rushing yards and 194.7 passing yards per game. They allow 443.7 total yards per game, with 188.3 rushing and 255.3 passing yards per game.
Liam Szarka leads the Falcons with 360 passing yards and 61.8% completed passes. Dylan Carson leads the team in rushing yards, with 213, while Cade Harris has a team-high 13 caught passes for 323 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, Blake Fletcher has a team-high 31 total tackles, 22 of them solo. Isaac Hubert leads the Falcons in sacks, with 3, while Roger Jones has one interception.
Hawaii Preview
Hawaii has a 3-2 record this season and are sitting on the 11th place of the Mountain West Conference. They are 3-2 ATS, 1-4 in Over/Under and have a 3-1 home record and 0-1 away record. The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a 21-23 home loss to Fresno State and are playing Air Force, Utah State and Colorado State next.Offensively, the Rainbow Warriors average 22.2 points per game, which ranks 98th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 20.8 points per game, which is 56th. Hawaii averages 342.5 total yards per game, with 98.3 rushing yards and 244.3 passing yards per game. They allow 274.5 total yards per game, with 120.0 rushing and 154.5 passing yards per game.
Luke Weaver leads the Rainbow Warriors with 600 passing yards and 59.8% completed passes. Landon Sims leads the team in rushing yards, with 154, while Pofele Ashlock has a team-high 26 caught passes for 235 receiving yards, and has three touchdowns. Defensively, Peter Manuma has a team-high 25 total tackles, 12 of them solo. Jackie Johnson III leads the Rainbow Warriors in sacks, with 3.5, while Peter Manuma has one interception.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Air Force Falcons Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Air Force Falcons will win
- Hawaii has lost each of its last 10 September games as an underdog.
- The home team has won six of Hawaii’s last seven games.
- The home team has covered the spread in seven of Hawaii’s last eight games.
- Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Hawaii has lost the first half in eight of its last nine road games against conference opponents.
Why the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will win
- Air Force has lost each of its last three September games as a favorite.
- Hawaii has won three of its last four games as an underdog against teams from Colorado.
- Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in September.
- Hawaii has covered the spread in each of its last four games against teams from Colorado.
- Air Force has lost the first half in each of its last four home games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Air Force’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Hawaii’s last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Air Force Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Cade Harris is one of only two players averaging over 20.0 rushing yards and 60.0 receiving yards per game this season.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Kansei Matsuzawa ranks 1st amongst FBS players for made field goals (13) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Air Force ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (12.7).
- Air Force ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Hawaii has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- Hawaii has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction
In their most recent meeting back in 2023, Hawaii won 27-13 at home. Air Force is 3-2 in their 5 meetings against Hawaii, and over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.In this Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction, Air Force is coming as -6.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 53.5 points. Hawaii looked terrible in their only road game this season, losing by 34 points to Arizona, and I don’t trust them to keep this one close. The Falcons have a superior offense, scoring 16.5 points per game more than Hawaii, and I expect them to get the job done at home and cover the spread.