New Mexico vs San José State Prediction 10/3/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The New Mexico Lobos and the San Jose State Spartans meet in week 6 college football action from CEFCU Stadium on Friday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New Mexico Lobos vs. San Jose State Spartans prediction.

New Mexico Lobos Recap

The New Mexico Lobos come into this game looking to add on to their 38-20 win over New Mexico State last time out to improve to 3-1 this season. After this game, the Lobos will head on the road for a matchup against Boise State.

Lobos Pick Up 3rd Straight W

Jack Layne has thrown for 818 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 69.3% passing while Scottre Humphrey has a team-high 263 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Damon Bankston has 238 rushing yards with a pair of touchdowns and D.J. McKinney’s added 175 rushing yards and a touchdown as well this season. Dorian Thomas leads New Mexico’s receiving group with 247 receiving yards on 24 catches with 3 touchdowns while Keagan Johnson and the aforementioned Bankston each have 100+ receiving yards and a TD so far this season. On defense, Jaxton Eck has a team-high 41 total tackles including 22 solo tackles while Keyshawn James-Newby has a team-high 2.5 sacks. As a unit, New Mexico’s defense has combined for 11 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

San Jose State Spartans Recap

The San Jose State Spartans come into this game looking to bounce back from a 30-29 loss at the hands of Stanford in their last game, falling to 1-3 on the year as a result. After this game, San Jose State will head on the road for a game against the Wyoming Cowboys.

Spartans Looking For Rebound Performance

Walker Eget has thrown for 1,187 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 57.3% passing while Jabari Bates leads San Jose State on the ground with 192 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns and Floyd Chalk IV also has 141 rushing yards and 2 scores as well this season. Danny Scudero leads San Jose State with 33 receptions for 514 yards and 3 touchdowns while Kyri Shoels has 23 grabs for 269 yards and 2 scores. Another pair of Spartans have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Jordan Pollard leads the Spartans with 32 total tackles while Vili Taufatofua has a pair of sacks. 

New Mexico Lobos @ San Jose State Spartans Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the San Jose State Spartans will win

• San Jose State has won each of its last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico has lost 23 of its last 27 road games against conference opponents.
• San Jose State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against teams from New Mexico.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 October games as an underdog.
• San Jose State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
• New Mexico has lost the first half in nine of its last 10 road games against conference opponents.

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• New Mexico has won each of its last three games as an underdog in California.
• San Jose State has lost four of its last five games.
• San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has covered the spread in seven of New Mexico’s last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of New Mexico’s last 10 games in California have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of San Jose State’s last six games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

San Jose State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Danny Scudero leads the Mountain West Conference for receiving yards (520) this season.

New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Jaxton Eck leads the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• San Jose State ranks T133rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (83.3).
• San Jose State ranks T130th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (66.7).
• New Mexico ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (12.5).
• New Mexico ranks 6th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (16.7).

New Mexico Lobos vs. San Jose State Spartans Prediction

I’m riding with San Jose State here. I just haven’t necessarily been impressed with the level of opposition that New Mexico has gone up against this season despite their 3-1 record to start the year, and San Jose State is still a team that many regarded as preseason contenders in the Mountain West. I think that despite their loss to Stanford, this is still a dangerous San Jose State team that can do some damage against a suspect Lobo defense. Give me San Jose State here.