| MATCHUP | Huskies UConn | Bulls Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Where | UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY | |
| When | Saturday, September 27, 2025 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article, we will formulate a UConn vs Buffalo Prediction for this College Football Week 5 game on Saturday, September 27th at the UB Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.
Buffalo Preview
Buffalo has a 2-2 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the Mid-American Conference. They are 2-2 ATS, 2-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 home record and 1-1 away record. The Bulls are coming off a 17-21 home loss to Troy and are playing Connecticut, Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts next.
Offensively, the Bulls average 25.8 points per game, which ranks 87th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 19.5 points per game, which is 47th. Buffalo averages 345.8 total yards per game, with 168.0 rushing yards and 177.8 passing yards per game. They allow 337.5 total yards per game, with 116.0 rushing and 221.5 passing yards per game.
Ta’Quan Roberson leads the Bulls with 662 passing yards and 62.1% completed passes. Al-Jay Henderson leads the team in rushing yards, with 274, while Victor Snow has a team-high 16 caught passes for 206 receiving yards, and has three touchdowns.
Defensively, Khalil Murdock has a team-high 44 total tackles, 17 of them solo. Kobe Stewart leads the Bulls in sacks, with 2.5, while Mitchell Gonser has one interception.
UConn Preview
UConn has a 2-2 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the FBS Independents. They are 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 0-2 away record. The Huskies are coming off a 31-25 home victory over Ball State and are playing Buffalo, Florida International and Boston College next.
Offensively, the Huskies average 37.8 points per game, which ranks 35th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 27.2 points per game, which is 90th. Connecticut averages 493.3 total yards per game, with 196.0 rushing yards and 297.3 passing yards per game. They allow 408.5 total yards per game, with 149.0 rushing and 259.5 passing yards per game.
Joe Fagnano leads the Huskies with 1046 passing yards and 66.2% completed passes. Camryn Edwards leads the team in rushing yards, with 500, while Camryn Edwards has a team-high 36 caught passes for 445 receiving yards, and has three touchdowns.
Defensively, Byrun Parham has a team-high 35 total tackles, 14 of them solo. Byrun Parham leads the Huskies in sacks, with 5.5, while Cam Chadwick has one interception.
Connecticut Huskies @ Buffalo Bulls Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Buffalo Bulls will win
- Connecticut has lost each of its last 19 road games in September.
- The home team has won each of Connecticut’s last four games.
- Connecticut has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite.
- Buffalo has covered the spread in each of its last three games as an underdog.
- Buffalo has won the first half in each of its last four home games against non-conference opponents.
- Buffalo has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at UB Stadium.
Why the Connecticut Huskies will win
- Connecticut has won 11 of its last 12 games as a favorite.
- Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games in September.
- Connecticut has won the first half in four of its last five games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Connecticut’s last five September games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of Buffalo’s last seven games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
Buffalo Bulls Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Al-Jay Henderson ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Connecticut Huskies Player Prop Facts
- Skyler Bell has recorded 75+ receiving yards in five consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 5.
Matchup/League Facts
- Buffalo ranks 126th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.0).
- Buffalo ranks T11th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+8.0).
- Three of Connecticut’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of seven points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
- Connecticut has played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
UConn vs Buffalo Prediction
In their previous meeting last season, UConn won 47-3 at home. They are 5-1 in their 6 head-to-head meetings against Buffalo, but they have lost their last trip to Buffalo. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.
In this UConn vs Buffalo Prediction, UConn is coming as -3-point road favorites, with the total set at 51 points. Both teams are 0-2 against the spread in each of their last two games, and I don’t trust either side in this matchup. They both are a combined 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games, as they average 63.6 points per game combined this season. Most of their head-to-head meetings have been high-scoring ones, and I expect more of the same today. Take the over 51 points.