Western Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction 8/29/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The Western Michigan Broncos and the Michigan State Spartans meet Friday in college football action from Spartan Stadium. Here’s a Western Michigan vs Michigan State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Western Michigan vs Michigan State pick. We will examine:

The Western Michigan Broncos recent form and player performance

The Michigan State Spartans recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Western Michigan Broncos

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan State Spartans

Recent betting trends in games played between Western Michigan and Michigan State

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Western Michigan vs Michigan State game

Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview

Last season, Western Michigan managed to exceed some pretty modest expectations for a reasonable campaign overall. The Broncos went 6-7 overall with a 5-3 run in the Mid-American Conference. That result would leave Western Michigan in fifth place, ahead of their seventh-place prediction in the preseason coaches poll. Miami-OH, Ohio, Buffalo and Bowling Green were ahead of the Broncos in the standings by year’s end. Western Michigan started out on a 5-3 run, but then lost four of their final five games. One of those was the Salute to Veterans Bowl, where the Broncos took a tough 30-23 loss to South Alabama on December 14.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Broncos will be under head coach Lance Taylor in his third season at the position. Western Michigan will also have offensive coordinator Walt Bell back, and they’ll have a new defensive coordinator in Chris O’Leary. The Broncos were once again picked to finish in seventh place among the preseason coaches poll.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Over on the Spartans’ side, they had a pretty disappointing campaign last year among a very tough conference. Michigan State went just 5-7 overall with a 3-6 run in Big Ten play. That would leave the team ahead of only UCLA, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland and Purdue in the standings. The Spartans started out well with three straight victories but were only able to beat Iowa and Purdue over their final nine outings. That makes three straight seasons that Michigan State has failed to reach bowl eligibility. Interestingly enough, the Spartans also lost to a first-year Michigan head coach for the first time since 1948.

Moving on from last season’s rough ride, the Spartans will return head coach Jonathan Smith in his second season. He’ll have his pair of coordinators back with him as well: Brian Lindgren on offense and Joe Rossi on the defensive side. They’ll get QB Aidan Chiles back this year after completing 59 percent of his passes alongside 13 touchdowns and 225 rush yards. If Chiles can control the turnovers this year (he had 11 picks and four fumbles in 2024), Michigan State’s offense should take a step forward.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Western Michigan has lost each of its last eight road games against non-conference opponents.
• Michigan State has won eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Spartan Stadium.
• Western Michigan has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Western Michigan and Michigan State.
• Western Michigan has lost the first half in 19 of its last 20 games against opponents from the Big Ten Conference.

Why the Western Michigan Broncos will win

• Michigan State has lost three of its last four games in Michigan.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
• Western Michigan has covered the spread in each of its last three August games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Western Michigan’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Michigan State’s last seven games against non-conference opponents at Spartan Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction

I’ll stick with the Spartans. Michigan State should be able to do a little more damage on the schedule this year, even though they’ve got a tough road making progress in a difficult Big Ten Conference. The offensive unit should be much-improved, even with the new faces at running back. Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) and Jace Larizio look pretty good on paper. The trouble seems to be the offensive line however, as the Spartans return just one starter from last season. If that unit can gel quickly (and avoid injury), they’ll open up some room in both the run and the pass attacks.

On defense Michigan State is rebuilding considerably at both linebacker and in the secondary. Junior safety Nikai Martinez is the only returning starter from that latter unit, and is also the team’s leading returning tackler. Needless to say, a few things have to go right for Michigan State this season but they’ve got more than enough talent to finally get back to a bowl game in 2025.