New Mexico (26-6) vs Boise State (23-9)
Game Info: Friday, March 14, 2025 at 9:30 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: New Mexico -1.5 — Over/Under: 148.5
The Boise State Broncos are facing the New Mexico Lobos on Friday, March 14th at the Thomas & Mack Center, in the first Mountain West semifinal between the first seed and the 5th seed of the conference. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction. We will examine:
The New Mexico Lobos recent form and player performance
The Boise State Broncos recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New Mexico Lobos
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boise State Broncos
Recent betting trends in games played between the Boise State Broncos and New Mexico Lobos
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos game
New Mexico Lobos Preview
The New Mexico Lobos have a 26-6 record this season were placed first in the Mountain West. New Mexico is coming off a 63-52 win over San Jose State in the conference quarterfinals yesterday. The Lobos are 15-16 against the spread, and 14-16-1 in over/under.
Offensively, New Mexico is averaging 82.2 points per game, which is the 18th-best in the nation. Defensively, they allow 71.3 points per game (158th). The Lobos shoot with 46.3% from the field (98th), and with 34.8% from beyond the arc (130th). The Lobos shoot with 69.1% from the free-throw line (285th), and are grabbing 39.5 rebounds per game, which is the 20th-best in the nation.
Donovan Dent leads New Mexico in scoring with an average of 20.4 points and a team-high 6.5 assists, while Nelly Junior Joseph adds 13.8 points and a team-high 11.1 rebounds per game.
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Boise State Broncos Preview
The Boise State Broncos have a 23-9 record this season and were placed 5th in the Mountain West. Boise State is coming off a 62-52 win over San Diego State in the conference quarterfinals yesterday. The Broncos are 17-14 against the spread, and 15-15-1 in over/under.
Offensively, Boise State is averaging 76 points per game, which ranks 118th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 66.3 points per game (37th). The Broncos shoot with 46.5% from the field (85th), and with 31.5% from beyond the arc (310th). The Broncos shoot with 77.7% from the free-throw line (24th), and are grabbing 36.3 rebounds per game (126th).
Tyson Degenhart leads Boise State in scoring, with an average of 17.8 points and 6.1 rebounds, while Andrew Meadow adds 12.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won each of its last six games at Thomas & Mack Center.
- Boise State has lost eight of its last 10 Conference Tournament night games at Thomas & Mack Center.
- New Mexico has won the first half in each of its last seven night games played at neutral venues.
Why the Boise State Broncos will win
- Boise State has won six of its last seven games.
- New Mexico has lost seven of its last nine night games at Thomas & Mack Center.
- Boise State has won the first half in 13 of its last 17 night games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Boise State’s last seven night games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 142 or fewer points.
- Each of New Mexico’s last six games against Conference opponents at Thomas & Mack Center have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (65.8%).
- New Mexico ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (73.4).
- Boise State ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (28.5).
- Boise State ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (56.0%).
Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction
Boise State is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against New Mexico, and are 6-3-1 against the spread. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings, and both teams are tied 1-1 wins this season, with each one winning at home. New Mexico won by 84-65 and Boise State by 86-78.
In this Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, New Mexico is coming as -1.5-point favorites. New Mexico is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and had more wins away from home than Boise State. Both teams are coming into this matchup in good form, as New Mexico is 8-2 in their last 10 games, but 2-6 against the spread in their last 8, while Boise State is also 8-2 in their last 10, and 7-3 against the spread, so don’t see any value on either side. Both teams have been playing some lower scoring games lately, as they are 6-2-2 to the under in their last 10 games combined. I this single elimination game, I expect a low-scoring grind, so give me the under 148.5 points.