UC Riverside (21-11) vs Cal Poly (15-18)
Game Info: Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 11:30 pm (Lee's Family Forum)
The Line: Betting Odds: UC Riverside -4.5 — Over/Under: 164.5
The Cal Poly Mustangs are facing the UC Riverside Highlanders on Thursday, March 13th at the Lee’s Family Forum, in this Big West quarterfinal between the 3rd seed and the 7th seed of the conference. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Prediction. We will examine:
The UC Riverside Highlanders’ recent form and player performance
The Cal Poly Mustangs’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UC Riverside Highlanders
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cal Poly Mustangs
Recent betting trends in games played between the Cal Poly Mustangs and UC Riverside Highlanders
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders game
UC Riverside Highlanders Preview
The UC Riverside Highlanders have a 21-11 record this season and were placed 3rd in the Big West. They are coming off a 64-59 win over Cal State Fullerton. The Highlanders are 18-11-1 against the spread, and 18-12 in over/under.
Offensively, UC Riverside is averaging 74.9 points per game, which ranks 149th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 73.5 points per game (227th). The Highlanders shoot 42.6% from the field (300th) and 34% from beyond the arc (187th). The Highlanders shoot 75.3% from the free throw line (68th) and are grabbing 33.9 rebounds per game (72nd).
Barrington Hargress leads UC Riverside in scoring this season, with an average of 20.6 points, adding a team-high 3.9 assists, while Isiah Moses adds 11.6 points and 3 assists per game.
Cal Poly Mustangs Preview
The Cal Poly Mustangs have a 15-18 record this season and were placed 7th in the Big West. They are coming off an 86-76 win over UC Davis in the first round of the tournament last night. The Mustangs are 17-15 against the spread, and 20-12 in over/under.
Offensively, Cal Poly is averaging 81.8 points per game, which is 25th in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing 82.5 points per game, which is the 5th-worst nationally. The Mustangs shoot 46.2% from the field (119th) and 35.4% from beyond the arc (109th). The Mustangs shoot 76.4% from the free throw line (35th) and are grabbing 31.1 rebounds per game (222nd).
Owen Koonce leads Cal Poly in scoring in the playoffs, with an average of 18 points and a team-high 6 assists, while Isaac Jessup adds 17 points and 4 assists per game.
Why the UC Riverside Highlanders will win
- UC Riverside has won each of its last six night games against Cal Poly.
- Cal Poly has lost each of its last seven Thursday games played at neutral venues.
- UC Riverside has won the first half in eight of its last nine games against Cal Poly.
Why the Cal Poly Mustangs will win
- Cal Poly has won each of its last four games.
- Cal Poly has won the first half in three of its last four games against the Big West Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Twenty-eight of UC Riverside’s last 29 night games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 164 or fewer points.
- Each of Cal Poly’s last nine games at a neutral venue has produced a total of 162 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- UC Riverside ranks T17th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.3).
- UC Riverside ranks T31st among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (62.3).
- Cal Poly ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (9.5).
- Cal Poly ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for pace this season (74.2).
Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Prediction
UC Riverside is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against Cal Poly, but Cal Poly is 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 meetings. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings, and both teams are tied 1-1 wins this season, with each one winning at home. The Highlanders won by 80-62 and the Mustangs by 112-100 in overtime.
In this Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Prediction, UC Riverside is coming as -4.5-point favorites. UC Riverside is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, had extra days of rest, and had more wins away from home than Cal Poly (7 to 5). Both teams have been in very good form lately, as Riverside is 5-1 in their last 6 games and 5-2 against the spread, while Cal Poly is coming off four consecutive wins, and are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, so I see no value on either side. Both teams are 12-4 to the over in their last 16 games combined, and one of their two meetings this season had a whopping 212 total points. I expect another high-scoring affair today, so give me the over 164.5 points in this one.