Nevada (16-15) vs Fresno State (6-25)
Game Info: Wednesday, March 12, 2025 at 4:30 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Nevada -11.5 — Over/Under: 137.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are facing the Nevada Wolf Pack on Wednesday, March 12th at the Thomas & Mack Center, in this Mountain West first-round matchup between the 7th seed and the 10th seed of the conference. The winner of this single-elimination game will face Colorado State in the quarterfinals on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Fresno State Bulldogs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction. We will examine:
The Nevada Wolf Pack’s recent form and player performance
The Fresno State Bulldogs’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Nevada Wolf Pack
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Fresno State Bulldogs
Recent betting trends in games played between the Fresno State Bulldogs and Nevada Wolf Pack
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Fresno State Bulldogs vs Nevada Wolf Pack game
Nevada Wolf Pack Preview
The Nevada Wolf Pack finished the regular season with a 16-15 record and were placed 7th in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 61-80 loss to San Diego State. The Wolf Pack are 14-17 against the spread, and 15-16 in over/under.
Offensively, Nevada is averaging 72.3 points per game, which ranks 227th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 68.1 points per game (63rd). The Wolf Pack shoot 47.7% from the field (43rd), and 35.1% from beyond the arc (121st). The Wolf Pack shoot 69.7% from the free-throw line (265th) and are grabbing 32.2 rebounds per game (322nd).
Nick Davidson leads Nevada in scoring, with an average of 15.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, while Kobe Sanders adds 15.6 points, 3.7 rebounds a team-high 4.3 assists per game.
Fresno State Bulldogs Preview
The Fresno State Bulldogs finished the regular season with a 6-25 record and were placed 10th in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs are coming off a 68-92 loss to San Jose State. The Bulldogs are 17-12-2 against the spread, and 18-13 in over/under.
Offensively, Fresno State is averaging 70.7 points per game, which ranks 269th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 80.5 points per game (351st). The Bulldogs shoot 40.6% from the field (353rd) and 31.1% from beyond the arc (324th). The Bulldogs shoot 69.3% from the free-throw line (277th) and are grabbing 34.8 rebounds per game (204th).
Jalen Weaver leads Fresno State in scoring, with an average of 12.5 points and 3.9 rebounds, while Zaon Collins adds 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and a team-high 4.4 assists per game.
Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win
- Fresno State has lost each of its last 10 day games.
- Nevada has won 15 of its last 16 games against Fresno State.
- Fresno State has lost the first half in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win
- Nevada has lost five of its last six games.
- Fresno State has won three of its last four day games at Thomas & Mack Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Nevada has lost the first half in each of its last nine games at Thomas & Mack Center.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Nevada’s last nine day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Thomas & Mack Center has produced a total of 140+ points.
- Each of Fresno State’s last seven games at a neutral venue has produced a total of 141+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Nevada ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (52.5).
- Nevada ranks T27th among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (31.3).
- Fresno State ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (41.0).
- Fresno State ranks 362nd among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (17.3).
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction
Nevada is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against Fresno State and is 7-3 against the spread. Over/under is 5-5 in their last 10 meetings. Nevada has won both meetings against Fresno State this season. At home by 94-69 and on the road by 77-66 in overtime.
In this Fresno State Bulldogs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction, Nevada is coming as -11.5-point favorites. Nevada is rightfully favored, as they have a far better record this season, and had 3 wins outside their home court, while Fresno State had only one. Both teams have been in poor form lately, as the Wolf Pack are 1-5 in their last 6 games and 1-5 against the spread, while the Bulldogs are 1-9 in their last 10 games but they are 3-1 against the spread. Laying double digits in a neutral home court in a single elimination game is very tricky, especially when the favorites have covered only once in their last six games. Roll the dice with the road dog, and take the Fresno State Bulldogs by +11.5 points in this one.