Belmont (21-10) vs Illinois State (19-13)
Game Info: Friday, March 7, 2025 at 3:30 pm (Enterprise Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Belmont Bruins +1 — Over/Under: 157
The Illinois State Redbirds and the Belmont Bruins meet Friday in Missouri Valley Tournament college basketball action from Enterprise Center. Here’s an Illinois State vs Belmont prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois State vs Belmont pick. We will examine:
The Illinois State Redbirds’ recent form and player performance
The Belmont Bruins’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Illinois State Redbirds
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Belmont Bruins
Recent betting trends in games played between Illinois State and Belmont
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Illinois State vs Belmont game
Illinois State Redbirds Betting Preview
The Redbirds have had a couple of rough runs so far this year but for the most part, they’ve played fairly well overall. Illinois State opened on a 4-4 run then took wins over Pacific, Saint Louis, Northern Illinois, Cornell, Murray State, and Southern Illinois in the next seven outings. After losses to Evansville, Northern Iowa, and Drake, the Redbirds won five of the next six against Missouri State, Indiana State, Belmont, Valparaiso, and UIC. Illinois State would fall to Northern Iowa, Drake, and Indiana State after that, then beat Bradley, Missouri State, Evansville, and Missouri State again in the next five outings. That gives the Redbirds a 19-13 overall run across 32 total games this year.
In the matchup versus Missouri State on Thursday, the Redbirds jumped out to a comfortable lead 38-23 by the break. Illinois State cruised from there on a 32-31 run and took the eventual win 70-54. Johnny Kinziger led the scoring with 13 points and six boards in the victory.
Belmont Bruins Betting Preview
Over on the Belmont side, they’ve got a couple of sketchy runs in the books so far this year but overall they’re doing pretty well. The Bruins went 9-2 over their first 11 outings, then lost to UC Irvine, Drake, and Northern Iowa. Wins over UIC, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Valparaiso, and Evansville came next, then a 1-3 run that featured losses to Bradley, Illinois State, and Evansville. Since then it’s been a 6-2 stretch for the Bruins. The two losses in that time were versus Valparaiso and Northern Iowa. Otherwise, it’s been wins over Bradley, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Missouri State, and Murray State in succession. That gives Belmont a 21-10 overall run in 31 games this year.
In the Murray State home rematch on Sunday, the Bruins came out of the first half sporting a 41-22 advantage. Belmont was outscored 38-29 the rest of the way but still took a double-digit win 70-60. Both Carter Whitt (six rebounds; seven assists; two steals) and Tyler Lundblade (three rebounds) scored 18 points apiece. Jonathan Pierre added 17 points with nine rebounds in 29 minutes of work, while Drew Scharnowski had five bench points in 10 minutes.
Why the Belmont Bruins will win
- Belmont has won seven of its last eight day games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
- Illinois State has lost four of its last five Conference Tournament day games at Enterprise Center.
- Belmont has won the first half in seven of its last eight day games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
Why the Illinois State Redbirds will win
- Illinois State has won four of its last five games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
- Belmont has lost each of its last five Friday games played at neutral venues.
- Belmont has lost the first half in each of its last five Friday games played at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Illinois State’s last 22 games against Conference opponents at Enterprise Center have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.
- Eight of Belmont’s last nine games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Belmont ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (17.2).
- Belmont ranks 24th among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.54).
- Illinois State ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (60.6%).
- Illinois State ranks 19th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.3).
Illinois State vs Belmont Prediction
I’ll probably just stay with Belmont here but you could make a strong case the other way. The Bruins didn’t play all that great versus a middling Murray State team in their last outing, but still came away with a double-digit victory. Belmont hit a tepid 41.9 percent from the field in that one, alongside 15 turnovers for 22 Racers points. The 41-38 rebounding edge and 12-of-15 (80 percent) from the line helped quite a bit, though. Belmont has posted 70 or more points in every game this calendar year, so there’s a good chance we’ll see another nice total from them here.
These teams split their two meetings this year in a pair of close games. Belmont took an OT win at home 99-97 on December 4, and Illinois State returned the favor 81-78 at home on January 29. The Redbirds have been playing well over their last five games (a 4-1 run) so they could potentially cause some big issues for the Bruins. Should be a fun matchup.