Santa Clara (20-11) vs Pepperdine (12-21)
Game Info: Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 8:30 pm (Orleans Arena)
The Line: Betting Odds: Santa Clara -15.5 — Over/Under: 155.5
The Pepperdine Waves are visiting the Santa Clara Broncos on Sunday, March 9th at the Orleans Arena, in this West Coast Conference Quarterfinal between the 4th seed and the 9th seed of the conference. The winner of this single-elimination game will face Saint Mary’s in the first semifinal on Monday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pepperdine Waves vs Santa Clara Broncos Prediction.
Santa Clara Broncos Preview
The Santa Clara Broncos had a 20-11 record in the regular season and with a 12-6 conference record, they finished in 4th place in the West Coast. The Broncos are coming off a 97-66 win over Pacific. The Broncos are 17-14 against the spread, and 16-15 in over/under.
Offensively, Santa Clara is averaging 81.5 points per game, which ranks 28th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 72.7 points per game (207th). The Broncos shoot 46.9% from the field (69th) and 37.8% from beyond the arc (25th). The Broncos shoot 72.7% from the free throw line (156th) and are grabbing 37.8 rebounds per game (55th).
Adama Bal leads Santa Clara in scoring this season, with an average of 13.1 points and a team-high 3.1 assists per game, while Carlos Stewart adds 12.4 points per game.
Pepperdine Waves Preview
The Pepperdine Waves finished the regular season with a 12-21 record this season and with a 4-14 conference record, they were placed 9th in the West Coast. The Waves are coming off a 77-73 win over Oregon State in the third round of the conference tournament, after eliminating Portland in the first round with a 73-86 score. The Waves are 15-17 against the spread, and 18-14 in over/under.
Offensively, Pepperdine is averaging 73.4 points per game, which ranks 199th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 76.7 points per game (310th). The Waves shoot 44.3% from the field (206th) and 34.3% from beyond the arc (178th). The Waves shoot 71.7% from the free-throw line (204th) and are grabbing 35.5 rebounds per game (163rd).
Stefan Todorovic leads Pepperdine in scoring this season, with an average of 18.5 points and 5.7 rebounds, while Moe Odum adds 12.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and a team-high 7.5 assists per game.
Why the Santa Clara Broncos will win
- Santa Clara has won each of its last six games against Pepperdine.
- Pepperdine has lost 21 of its last 28 night games.
- Pepperdine has lost the first half in each of its last eight night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the Pepperdine Waves will win
- Pepperdine has won three of its last four games at Orleans Arena.
- Santa Clara has lost three of its last four games against the West Coast Conference at Orleans Arena.
- Santa Clara has lost the first half in three of its last four Conference Tournament night games at Orleans Arena.
Total Points Facts
- Ten of Pepperdine’s last 11 night games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 155 or fewer points.
- Seven of Santa Clara’s last eight night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Orleans Arena have produced a total of 157+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Santa Clara ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (10.8).
- Santa Clara ranks T19th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (16.9).
- Pepperdine ranks 48th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (15.9).
- Pepperdine ranks 50th among Division 1 teams for assist-to-turnover ratio this season (1.42).
Pepperdine Waves vs Santa Clara Broncos Prediction
Santa Clara is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings against Pepperdine, but both teams are tied 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 meetings. Over is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings and in their previous meeting earlier this season, Santa Clara won 91-80 at home, not covering the spread, as the game went over the point total.
In this Pepperdine Waves vs Santa Clara Broncos Prediction, Santa Clara is coming as a huge -15.5-point favorites. Santa Clara is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been far better away from home than Pepperdine, as they have 6 road wins this season, while Pepperdine has only two. Santa Clara has been red-hot lately, as they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and a dominating 7-1 against the spread, while Pepperdine, is 3-7 in their last 10 games, even though they won their previous two playoff games. Both teams have been playing some higher-scoring games lately, as they are 8-1 to the over in their last 9 games combined, and their previous meeting this season was also a high-scoring one with 171 total points. Pepperdine’s two playoff games also went over the point total, so follow the strong trend and take the over.