St. Mary's (28-5) vs Vanderbilt (20-12)
Game Info: Friday, March 21, 2025 at 3:15 pm (Rocket Arena)
The Line: Betting Odds: St. Mary's -4.5 — Over/Under: 135.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores are facing the Saint Mary’s Gaels on Friday, March 21st at the Rocket Arena, in this NCAA Tournament Round of 64 matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction. We will examine:
The Saint Mary’s Gaels recent form and player performance
The Vanderbilt Commodores recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Saint Mary’s Gaels
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Vanderbilt Commodores
Recent betting trends in games played between the Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels game
Saint Mary’s Gaels Preview
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have a 28-5 record this season and are were placed first in the West Coast. The Gaels are coming off a 51-58 loss by Gonzaga in the WCC Final. The Gaels are 14-18 against the spread, and 12-19-1 in over/under.
Offensively, Saint Mary’s is averaging 73.5 points per game, which ranks 166th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 60.7 points per game, which is the 5th-best in the nation. The Gaels shoot with 45.5% from the field (132th), and with 32.3% from beyond the arc (212th). The Gaels shoot with 69.4% from the free-throw line (264th), and are grabbing 36.6 rebounds per game, which is the 16th-best in the nation.
Augustas Marciulionis leads Saint Mary’s in scoring this season, with 14.4 points and a team-high 6.1 assists, while Paulius Murauskas adds 12.8 points and a team-high 8.1 rebounds per game.
Vanderbilt Commodores Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores have a 20-12 record this season and were placed 12th in the SEC. Vanderbilt is coming off a 72-79 loss by Texas in the first round of the SEC tournament. The Commodores are 18-14 against the spread, and 16-15-1 in over/under.
Offensively, Vanderbilt is averaging 79.6 points per game, which is 49th in the nation. Defensively, they are allowing 74.8 points per game (261st). The Commodores shoot with 45.1% from the field (158th), and with 32.5% from beyond the arc (258th). The Commodores shoot with 74.7% from the free throw line (86th), and are grabbing 31.5 rebounds per game (206th).
Jason Edwards leads Vanderbilt scoring this season, with an average of 17 points, while Tyle Nickel adds 10.5 points per game.
Why the Saint Mary’s Gaels will win
- Saint Mary’s has won 18 of its last 20 games.
- Vanderbilt has lost each of its last three games.
- Saint Mary’s has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Vanderbilt has won each of its last nine games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- Saint Mary’s has lost three of its last four games against the Southeastern Conference.
- Vanderbilt has won the first half in each of its last nine day games against non-Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Vanderbilt’s last 15 games have produced a total of 143+ points.
- Each of Saint Mary’s’ last five games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 133 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Saint Mary’s ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (57.4%).
- Saint Mary’s ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (5.5).
- Vanderbilt ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (9.2).
- Vanderbilt ranks 30th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (12.8%).
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction
Vanderbilt is 3-1 in their four meetings against Saint Mary’s, and are 3-1 against the spread. In their most recent meeting back in 2022, Saint Mary’s won 75-65 on the road, covering the spread.
In this Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction, Saint Mary’s is coming as -4-point favorites. Saint Mary’s is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been one of the best road teams in the nation with an almost perfect 9-1 record, while Vanderbilt has only 3 wins away from home.
Saint Mary’s is 8-1 in their last 9 games, but 0-4 against the spread in their last 4, while Vandy is 3-6 in their last 9 games and 0-3 against the spread. The Commodores are not in good enough form to keep this one close, so I will take the Saint Mary’s Gaels and lay the -4.5 points in this one.