Miami (42-50) vs Baltimore (42-50)
July 11, 2025 at 07:05 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Baltimore -130 — Over/Under: +9
The Miami Marlins and the Baltimore Orioles meet Friday in MLB action from Camden Yards. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will send out Edward Cabrera for the start here and Cabrera is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 80 strikeouts this season. This will be Cabrera’s second career start against the Orioles. Dean Kremer will start this one for the Orioles and is 7-7 with a 4.53 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season. This will be Kremer’s second career start against the Marlins.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to rebound from a 6-0 loss at the hands of the Reds on Thursday to sit at 42-50 on the year. After this series, the Marlins will head home for an interleague series against the Kansas City Royals following the all-star break.
Marlins Drop Back-To-Back Games
Xavier Edwards has 89 hits including 12 doubles and a team-high 16 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 78 hits with 20 doubles. Otto Lopez has 70 hits with 9 doubles and 9 home runs with 44 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 82 hits with 13 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs and 48 RBIs but also has 95 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 14 home runs, 19 doubles and 40 RBIs and Jesus Sanchez has chipped in 30 RBIs as well on the year.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Orioles have lost each of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
The Marlins have won 10 of their last 12 games as road underdogs.
The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against American League opponents.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
Kyle Stowers has recorded two or more hits in each of the Marlins’ last three night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Baltimore Orioles Recap
The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their double-header sweep over the Mets from Thursday to improve to 42-50 on the year. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a division series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Orioles Win 5 Of Their Last 6 Games
Cedric Mullins has 57 hits so far this season as well as 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 41 RBIs with 12 stolen bases and a .215 batting average while Adley Rutschman has 55 hits with 9 doubles, 8 homers and 20 RBIs. Jackson Holliday has 87 hits with 13 doubles, 2 triples, 12 homers and 38 RBIs. Ryan Mountcastle has 46 hits with 13 doubles, 2 homers and 15 RBIs and Gunnar Henderson has a team-high 88 strikeouts as well this season. Ryan O’Hearn’s also chipped in 75 hits with 13 doubles and 11 home runs with 32 RBIs and Heston Kjerstad’s added 4 homers and 19 RBIs.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
The Marlins have lost 21 of their last 23 night games against AL East opponents following a loss.
The Orioles have won eight of their last nine home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a win.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against AL East opponents following a loss.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Jordan Westburg has recorded at least one Double in six of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Dean Kremer has recorded seven strikeouts in each of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Dean Kremer has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as home favorites.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Orioles as home favorites.
Ryan O’Hearn ranks 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.382) this season.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Marlins’ last nine night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Seven of the last eight games between the Marlins and Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction
I’m leaning towards the Marlins here. I don’t love the Orioles when Dean Kremer is on the mound, even at home where he’s been better so far this season. Edward Cabrera for me still has a ton of upside with his game, and the Marlins have still been a solid road team as of late despite settling for a split with the Reds. I’ll take Miami and the plus money here.