| MATCHUP | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 63-76 | 76-63 |
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego, California | |
| When | Tuesday, September 2, 2025 | |
| Time | 09:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MAS+ | |
In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 2nd at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Orioles having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 76-62 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 43-23 home record, and are 59-74 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 3-4 home defeat by the Orioles, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games and are playing the Reds and the Rockies next.
The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .385 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 153 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 79, and in home runs, with 21.
Yu Darvish (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 3-4 record, 5.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Baltimore Orioles Preview
The Baltimore Orioles have a 62-76 record this season and are sitting in the last place of the AL East. The Orioles have a 31-39 road record and 60-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 road victory over the Padres, and are 3-8 in their last 11 games. Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games, and are playing the Dodgers and the Pirates next.
The Orioles have a .242 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .405 slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Gunnar Henderson leads the Orioles with 138 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 61, adding a team-high 16 home runs.
Tyler Wells (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and this will be his first start of the season.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last 11 home games following a home loss.
- The Orioles have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents following a road win.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL West opponents following a road win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six Tuesday games.
- The Orioles have lost the first inning in five of their last six games.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games as underdogs.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home night games.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Padres have lost each of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The underdogs have won three of the Padres’ last four games at Petco Park.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
- The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Tuesday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games at Petco Park against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Padres’ last six night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Orioles’ last five night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last seven night games against NL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight home games against AL East opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.224).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1013).
- The Orioles rank 28th in the league for walks this season (387).
- The Orioles rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.262).
Orioles vs Padres Prediction
The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Orioles, but the Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in San Diego. Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Orioles vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -170 home favorites. Darvish has been struggling to get back to form this season, but he has been steadily good at home, with a 2.95 home ERA across 4 home starts. Tyler Wells is coming off a 60-day stint in the IL, and he does not stand a chance against a superior Padres squad. San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball to come after Darvish, and I like them in a bounce-back spot today. Take the San Diego Padres and lay the juice at home.