| MATCHUP | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 64-76 | 76-64 |
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego, California | |
| When | Wednesday, September 3, 2025 | |
| Time | 04:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MAS+ | |
In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 3rd at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with the Orioles having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 76-63 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 43-24 home record, and are 59-74 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 2-6 home defeat by the Orioles, and are 1-5 in their last 6 games. Over is 6-1-2 in their last 9 games and are playing the Reds and the Rockies next.
The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .385 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 154 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 79, and in home runs, with 21.
Nestor Cortes (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 2-3 record, 5.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Baltimore Orioles Preview
The Baltimore Orioles have a 63-76 record this season and are sitting in the last place of the AL East. The Orioles have a 32-39 road record and 60-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-2 road victory over the Padres, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 games, and are playing the Dodgers and the Pirates next.
The Orioles have a .242 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .405 slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Gunnar Henderson leads the Orioles with 138 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 61, adding a team-high 16 home runs.
Cade Povich (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 2-7 record, 5.04 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won 11 of their last 12 home games following a home loss.
- The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games against NL West opponents following a road win.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against NL West opponents following a road win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
- The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home day games.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Padres have lost each of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The underdogs have won four of the Padres’ last five games at Petco Park.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games.
Total Runs Facts
- Thirteen of the Padres’ last 16 day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight day games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Orioles’ last nine road games against NL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1023).
- The Orioles rank 28th in the league for walks this season (392).
- The Orioles rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.262).
Orioles vs Padres Prediction
The Orioles have won their last three head-to-head meetings against the Padres, and are 4-2 in their last 6 visits in San Diego. Over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 meetings.
In this Orioles vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -165 home favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they have a combined 10.10 ERA, but Povich has been significantly better on the road, with a 3.86 ERA, and the Padres are terrible against lefties, scoring just 3.7 runs per game against southpaws. Cortes has given up 3+ runs in two of his last three starts, and the way the Padres are playing lately is making them fade material. Take a stab with the Baltimore Orioles as road dogs and the plus money in this one.