Cincinnati Reds (20-24) vs Chicago White Sox (14-29)
May 15, 2025 at 12:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -225 / Chicago White Sox +185 — Over/Under: 9.5
The Chicago White Sox are visiting the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday, May 15th at the Great American Ball Park in the third game of this series, with the White Sox surprisingly leading 2-0 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction. We will examine:
The Cincinnati Reds’ recent form and player performance
The Chicago White Sox’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Chicago White Sox
Recent betting trends in games played between the Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds game
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-24 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place in the NL Central. The Reds have a 9-12 home record and are 19-25 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-4 home defeat by the White Sox and have been on a terrible slump lately, with a 2-10 record in their last 12 games. Under is 8-2 in their last 10 games.
The Reds have a .236 batting average this season, a .318 OBP, and a .379 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. TJ Friedl leads the Reds with 43 hits, while Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds in RBI, with 30, and a team-high 7 home runs. Gavin Flux is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average.
Nick Martinez (R) will take the mound for the Reds, and he has a 1-4 record, 4.23 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. He has zero earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched in his last two starts. He has been better at home, with a 3.57 ERA, and in his previous start against the White Sox back in 2023, he had a shutout performance in 5 innings pitched.
Chicago White Sox Preview
The Chicago White Sox have a 14-29 record this season and are sitting in last place in the AL Central. The White Sox have a 5-17 road record and are 19-21 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Reds, and are riding a three-game winning streak. Under is 7-2 in their last 9 games.
The White Sox have a .216 batting average this season, a .292 OBP, and a .328 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Lenyn Sosa leads the White Sox with 40 hits and a team-high .272 batting average. Andrew Vaughn leads the team in RBI, with 18.
Bryse Wilson (R) will take the mound for the White Sox, and he has a 0-1 record, 4.88 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP. He has been better on the road, with a 3.24 ERA, and he is coming off a quality start with just one earned run in 5 innings pitched, in a 6-2 win over Miami.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The White Sox have lost 14 of their last 16 road games following a road win.
- The Reds have won three of their last four day games following a loss.
- The White Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have covered the run line in three of their last four day games following a loss.
- The White Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Chicago White Sox will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last seven games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
- The White Sox have won each of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 games as home favorites against American League opponents.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the last six games between the White Sox and Reds.
- The White Sox have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The White Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Eleven of the Reds’ last 12 day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the White Sox’s last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven day games against AL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the White Sox’s last 10 games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank T4th in the league for steals this season (48).
- The Reds rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (398).
- The White Sox rank 29th in the league for hits this season (301).
- The White Sox rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.216).
Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
The White Sox have won both games of this series by 4-2 and 5-1, but the Reds swept their only series against the White Sox last season with 3-0 wins, with a 27-5 total score. Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, the Reds are coming as huge -225 home favorites. The Reds are the better team on paper, but the White Sox have been dominating them in this series. While I don’t think the White Sox will win a third one in a row, I don’t trust Martinez on the mound for the Reds, so I see no value on either side. Both games of this series went under the total with 6 total runs each, and because of the shaky pitchers, today’s total is up at 9 runs. Both teams average 8.2 runs combined against righties, and both pitchers’ home/away ERAs look promising. Take the under 9 in this one.