Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction MLB Picks 9/2/24

In this article, we will formulate a Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 2nd at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

• The Astros’ recent form and recent player performance 
• The Reds’ recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Houston
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
• Recent betting trends in games played between Houston and Cincinnati
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Houston and Cincinnati

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 75-62 this year and they have won five games in a row. Houston is coming off of a series win against Kansas City, where they won all four games at home. Prior to that series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Phillies, split four games with the Orioles, and lost two out of three against the Red Sox. Houston is 6-2 in their last eight games and they are first in the AL West. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .227 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 628 runs with a .261 batting average and a .320 on base percentage. Jose Altuve is batting .296 with 18 home runs and 57 RBI’s for the Astros this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 65-73 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against Milwaukee, where they lost three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Athletics, lost three out of four against the Pirates, and won two out of three against the Blue Jays. Cincinnati is 3-8 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Reds’ offense has scored 616 runs with a .232 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .263 with 22 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Reds this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 3-4 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 67.0 innings pitched this year. Verlander has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Julian Aguiar, who is 1-0 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 14.0 innings pitched this season. Aguiar has allowed two earned runs in two of his last three starts but did allow six earned runs last time out against Oakland. 

Why the Astros will beat the Reds

• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have won each of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight-day games after going to extra innings.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last five-day games following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Reds’ last six games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total run line.
• Six of the Astros’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last three games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances against AL opponents.
• Jonathan India has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Spencer Steer has recorded a single in each of the Reds’ last four-day games.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Reds’ last five games against AL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds’ last nine games against AL West opponents at Great American Ball Park.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Justin Verlander has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances in day games.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Justin Verlander has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his eight previous Monday-day appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cincinnati Reds rank 26th in the league for batting average this season (.232).
• The Cincinnati Reds rank T8th in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.227).
• The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (1025).

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 

Houston comes into this matchup after dominating the Royals in four games over the weekend and they are looking to put even more room between them and the Mariners in the AL West. Houston is 36-33 on the road this year, while Cincinnati is 33-39 at home. The Reds were able to avoid the sweep on Sunday, but they have not played well over the last two weeks. I know Verlander has struggled a little bit this season, but he is the much better option in this pitching matchup and I am going to take the Astros to win by at least two runs. 

David Racey's Pick: Astros -1.5