Jul 10, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a single in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

Pick details

Texas (46-48) vs Houston (55-38)

July 11, 2025 at 08:10 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Houston -125 — Over/Under: +8

(Get latest betting odds)

The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros meet Friday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Texas Rangers will send out Jack Leiter for the start here and Leiter is 4-6 with a 4.32 ERA and 63 strikeouts this season. This will be Leiter’s second career start against the Astros. Lance McCullers Jr. will start this one for the Astros and is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 44 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rangers, McCullers Jr. is 0-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 26 strikeouts.

Texas Rangers Recap

The Texas Rangers come into this game looking to build on their 11-4 win over the Angels last time out to sit at 46-48 on the year. After this series, the Rangers will head home for a series against Detroit after the all-star break.

Rangers Looking For Some Consistency

Corey Seager has 61 hits including 13 home runs and 30 RBIs while Adolis Garcia has 76 hits with 19 doubles, 11 home runs, 53 RBIs and 9 stolen bases. Josh Jung has 66 hits with 10 doubles, 8 home runs and 35 RBIs while Wyatt Langford has 66 hits with 11 doubles, 14 home runs, 36 RBIs and 13 stolen bases and Jonah Heim has 8 homers and 26 RBIs. Josh Smith has chipped in 82 hits with 16 doubles, 8 home runs and 24 RBIs with 8 stolen bases and Marcus Semien’s added 10 homers and 47 RBIs but has 71 strikeouts this season.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

The underdogs have won each of the Astros’ last seven games.
The Astros have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Astros’ last seven games.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

Corey Seager has hit a home run in four of the Rangers’ last five games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
Corey Seager has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians in Wednesday’s series finale to sit at 55-38 on the year. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Seattle Mariners.

Astros Drop Three In A Row

Jose Altuve has 94 hits including 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 51 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 102 hits with 18 doubles, 11 homers and 40 RBIs with 15 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 12 home runs and 45 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 96 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 6 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 14 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has a team-high 19 home runs with 49 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 7 homers and 39 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

The Astros have won each of their last 11 games against AL West opponents following a loss.
The Rangers have lost each of their last nine Friday games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against AL West opponents following a road win.
The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

Victor Caratini has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Double in four of the Astros’ last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
Lance McCullers Jr. has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Astros as favorites against AL opponents.
Lance McCullers Jr. has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a losing record.
Jake Meyers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Seven of the Rangers’ last eight games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Astros’ last six games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Prediction

I’m on the Rangers in this one. I gave Houston the benefit of the doubt at home against a struggling Guardians team and got swept. Now, they have to face a Rangers team that always gets up for this rivalry and found some offense earlier this week. I think McCullers Jr. struggles once again as he has at home for much of the season so far and I think the Rangers pull off the opening win here. Give me the Rangers here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Texas +105

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