Marlins vs Mets Prediction 8/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 28th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 62-71 this year after they lost two out of three against Atlanta by scores of 2-1, 2-11, and 1-12. In their game three loss, Miami allowed the first nine runs in the game and never had a chance in the blowout loss. The Marlins recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Hill, who went 2-3 with one RBI in the loss. Miami started Gusto, who allowed seven hits and nine earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while Tarnok allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Cardinals. Miami has lost four of their last six games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.58 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 567 runs with a .249 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 18 home runs and 57 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Adam Mazur, who is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 5.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 72-61 this season after they swept Philadelphia by scores of 13-3, 6-5, and 6-0. In their game three win, New York scored three runs in the third inning and cruised to the shutout win. The Mets recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Vientos, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. New York started McLean, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 8.0 innings for the win, while Raley closed out the game. 

Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Braves, but did lose two out of three against the Nationals before that. New York has won five of their last six games, but they are still second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 618 runs with a .249 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 29 home runs and 106 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 32 home runs and 79 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 137.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins 

• The Mets have won each of their last five night games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have lost five of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Mets’ last five night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
• Juan Soto has recorded a hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games at Citi Field.
• Jose Siri has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto ranks T7th in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in seven of his eight previous road appearances against the Mets.
• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in six of his last 25 appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (466).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Marlins rank T25th in the league for home runs this season (128).
• The Marlins rank 25th in the league for ERA this season (4.58).

Marlins vs Mets Prediction 

New York rolls into this series after cutting the deficit in the NL East to just four games, so they have plenty of momentum here. The Mets are 44-24 at home this year, while the Marlins are 31-34 on the road. Miami has allowed 23 runs in their last two games and they are starting Mazur, who allowed four earned runs and five hits in his first outing. New York is going with Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the Mets -1.5 here.