Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 8/31/2025 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 24, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; New York Mets first base Pete Alonso (20) swings the bat as it snaps in the game against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Team Records
65-72
73-64
Where
Citi Field, Queens, New York
When
Sunday, August 31, 2025
Time
01:40 PM EDT
TV
WPIX
The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara here and Alcantara is 7-11 with a 5.87 ERA and 113 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Alcantara is 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 19 strikeouts. The New York Mets will start Kodai Senga here and Senga is 7-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 103 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Marlins, Senga is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 29 strikeouts.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Mets from Saturday’s matchup to improve to 64-72 on the year after the 11-8 victory. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Washington Nationals.
Marlins Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight
Xavier Edwards has 138 hits including 20 doubles and a team-high 24 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 97 hits with 22 doubles. Otto Lopez has 108 hits with 18 doubles and 12 home runs with 65 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 115 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 25 home runs and 73 RBIs but also has 125 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 18 home runs, 27 doubles and 58 RBIs on the year.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Mets have lost nine of their last 11 games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
The underdogs have won 12 of the Mets’ last 15 games at Citi Field.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against NL East opponents following a road win.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous road appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to rebound fro their loss at the hands of the Marlins on Saturday to drop to 73-63 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Detroit Tigers.
Mets Looking For Consistency
Pete Alonso has 139 hits with 34 doubles, 31 home runs, 110 RBIs and a .269 batting average while Juan Soto has 119 hits with 16 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 33 home runs and 81 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 146 hits with 25 stolen bases along with 28 doubles, 25 home runs and 75 RBIs while Mark Vientos has 14 home runs and 50 RBIs, but also has 85 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 125 hits with 24 doubles and 22 home runs and 77 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 12 doubles and Luisangel Acuna has 12 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the New York Mets will win
The Mets have won each of their last 12 home games against the Marlins following a loss.
The Marlins have lost each of their last 11 games at Citi Field following a win.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against the Marlins following a loss.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a win.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
Kodai Senga has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances with the Mets as favorites against the Marlins.
Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against the Marlins.
Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Mets’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction
I’m looking at the over here. I just don’t trust either starter here, as Senga hasn’t looked right since the all-star break, and every time I’m about ready to give Sandy Alcantara the benefit of the doubt, he comes out and gets absolutely shelled. I think we can get some runs going here, so give me the over.
