Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 9/24/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds meet Wednesday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will start Paul Skenes here and Skenes is 10-10 with a 2.03 ERA and 209 strikeouts this season. In his career, Skenes is 4-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 33 strikeouts against Cincinnati. Cincinnati will send out Hunter Greene here and Greene is 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 125 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Pittsburgh, Greene is 1-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 32 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over Cincinnati on Tuesday to sit at 68-89 this season. After this series, Pittsburgh will have their season’s final series against the Atlanta Braves.

Pirates Win Three In A Row

Bryan Reynolds has 138 hits with 36 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBIs while also posting 170 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 19 home runs and 59 RBIs with 38 stolen bases. Cruz also has 169 strikeouts as well this season. Tommy Pham has 17 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 111 hits with 22 doubles as well this season.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Pirates in Tuesday’s matchup to drop to 80-77 this season. After this series, the Reds will head to Milwaukee for a series against the division rival Milwaukee Brewers.

Reds Have Five-Game Win Streak Snapped

Elly De La Cruz has 159 hits with 20 home runs, 83 RBIs, 31 doubles and 36 stolen bases while TJ Friedl has 143 hits with 20 doubles, 13 home runs and 50 RBIs with 12 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 115 hits with 26 doubles and 51 RBIs while Spencer Steer has 21 home runs and 74 RBIs and Matt McLain has added 15 homers, 49 RBIs and 18 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 20 doubles as well this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: September 24, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 2.74
• Home Record: 5-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-3

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six home games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes      Record this season: 10-10      ERA: 2.03
• Road Record: 4-5
• Last 5 against Reds: 4-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last eight Wednesday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Wednesday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Reds’ last eight games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs against the Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Reds’ last 11 games as favorites against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games as home favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five night games against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three home games against the Pirates.
• Hunter Greene has recorded eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Miguel Andujar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
• Hunter Greene has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (36) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Triolo has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 road appearances against former teams.
• Joey Bart has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
• Paul Skenes ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.03) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.235).
• The Reds rank T8th in the league for hits allowed this season (1232).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (565).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (113).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m on the under here. Paul Skenes has owned the Reds in his career and I could see it happening again here, but even on his best day, Skenes has had an issue getting run support and I could see that happening too with how well Greene has been pitching in a lot of his recent home games. Give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 7