Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 8/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 28^th at the Busch Stadium in the 4^th game of this series, with the Pirates having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Saint Louis Cardinals Preview

The Saint Louis Cardinals have a 65-69 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the NL Central. The Cardinals have a 31-37 home record and are 68-58 in over/under They are coming off a 1-2 home defeat by the Pirates, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games and are playing the Athletics and the Reds next.

The Cardinals have a .248 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Saint Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals with 123 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .288 batting average. Wilson Contreras leads the team in RBI, with 73, adding a team-high 19 home runs.

Miles Mikolas (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 6-10 record, 5.17 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 59-75 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 20-45 road record, and are 55-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-1 road victory over the Cardinals, and are 6-1 in their last 7 games. They are playing the Red Sox and the Dodgers next.

The Pirates have a .234 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .352 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 122 hits, and a team-high 66 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .246 batting average, while Oneil Cruz leads the team in home runs, with 18.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last six day games against the Pirates at Busch Stadium following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last five day games against the Cardinals following a road win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against the Pirates at Busch Stadium following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five Thursday day games.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Thursday day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cardinals have lost four of their last five games as home favorites.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in five of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Cardinals’ last six home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Twenty-four of the Pirates’ last 30 day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven day games between the Pirates and Cardinals.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven day games against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
• The Cardinals rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (990).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (483).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (97).

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction

The Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals are 4-2 in their last 6 home meetings against the Pirates. Over is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, the Cardinals are coming as -130 home favorites. The Cardinals are looking to stop the bleeding the Mikolas on the mound, who has been mediocre this season, but way better at home, with a 3.70 home ERA. But he has been in poor form lately, with a 6.17 ERA and 1-4 record across his last 5 starts. On the flip side, Ashcraft looked excellent as a starter for the Pirates, with just 2 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched in his three starts this season, so I like the Pirates, who are suddenly hot with a 6-1 record in their last 7, as an underdog in this spot. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates and the plus money in this one.