UFC 304 takes place on Saturday at the Co-op Live in Manchester, England, and this should be an exciting card. Let’s take a look at a free play on each of the main card fights to make your Saturday a winning one.
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad
Edwards -250 / Muhammad +205 // Total Rounds: 4.5
Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad face off for the second time and this time for the welterweight belt. When these two teams faced off in March of 201, the fight was ruled a no contest. Edwards has won four fights since that fight, and each of the last three fights have been for the belt. In December of 2023, he faced off against Colby Covington and he was able to win by unanimous decision. On the other side of the fight is Muhammad who has won straight fights since that no contest. Muhammad’s last fight came against Gilbert Burns in May of 2023 and it was a unanimous decision victory. He had 132 significant strikes in that fight. Edwards is going to have the home crowd behind him, but there is value with Muhammad here. Muhammad does a good job of recovering in fights, and that is going to help him here. This is a fight that Edwards can win, but Muhammad matches up well here, and there is value. Back Muhammad on the money line.
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes
Aspinall -395 / Blaydes +310 // Total Rounds: 1.5
Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes faced off in July of 2022 and it didn’t take long as Curtis Blaydes finished the fight in 15 seconds. Since that lost, Aspinall has won two straight fights. In November of 2023, Aspinall faced off against Sergei Pavlovich and it was a little more than a minute into the first round that he was able to win by knockout. Blaydes last fight came against Jailton Almeida in March of 2024 and it was early in the second round that he won by knockout. Aspinall is a big favorite in this fight, and he’s going to find a way to get Blaydes out of here. I don’t trust Blaydes game plan preparing for this fight, and Aspinall is going to get the job done. Back Aspinall to win this by finish.
Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett
Green -110 / Pimblett -110 // Total Rounds: 2.5
Paddy Pimblett is having a big step up in competition here, and I really don’t trust him here. Green has fought the best of the best inside the octagon, while Pimblett is finally getting a real test here. Pimblett does have a strong chin, but Green can apply the pressure, and the last couple of fights, Pimblett isn’t going to have a very strong fight here. Green might not get the finish, but he will impress, and find a way to get the victory. Back Green on the money line to cash.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues
Duncan -135 / Rodrigues +114 // Total Rounds: 1.5
Duncan is going to be loved by the home crowd here, but I am not so sold on him here. Duncan has found success, but it’s been against lower competition. Rodrigues is going to throw punches in bunches and Duncan isn’t going to be able to weather the storm. Rodrigues is going to put so much pressure on, and Duncan isn’t going to have any answer. Rodrigues will get the job done inside the octagon. Back Rodrigues to win by knockout.
Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze
Allen -230 / Chikadze +190 // Total Rounds: 2.5
This isn’t the best fight on the board to bet, but there is value with the underdog here. Allen is an elite kickboxer, but Giga Chikadze is going to be prepared for it. Chikadze is a well rounded fighter, and he’s going to find a way to take away the kickboxing here. If you are betting this one, bet it small, but there is value with Chikadze here. Back Chikadze on the money line.