Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs Denver Nuggets (50-32)
May 13, 2025 at 09:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 — Over/Under: 220.5
The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Tuesday in the NBA playoffs Game 5 at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets look for a third road win to take a 3-2 series lead. The Nuggets have responded from a loss with a victory in their last three tries. The Nuggets have split their last 10 playoff games overall.
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 107.4 points on 45.2 percent shooting and allowing 111.1 points on 46.4 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 24.9 points and 12.7 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 21.7 points and 5 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 74.5 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 34.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.6 rebounds per game.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder look for a fourth home win to take a 3-2 series lead. The Thunder have won six of their last nine home playoff games. The Thunder have lost their last three game 5s.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 118 points on 44.3 percent shooting and allowing 103.6 points on 40.8 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.6 points and 6.6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 21 points and 4.8 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 9.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 31.8 percent from beyond the arc and 78.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 32.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.6 rebounds per game.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won nine of their last 10 night games at Paycom Center.
- The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Thunder’s last eight games.
- The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games following a home loss.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Thunder have lost each of their last four Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites following a win.
- The Nuggets have won each of their last six night Game 5s of a playoff series.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games following a win.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last four playoff games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
- Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
- Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II. Hunter Tyson will be out with an ankle injury. Tyson has played just 12 minutes in this series.
The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
I get the Thunder have been the best team in the league this season and they’ve been kind to bettors all year with a 58-29-4 ATS record. As I’ve said before, the Thunder are the best bet in sports these days. However, this line is disrespectful toward a Nuggets team that’s hung with the Thunder in this series and could easily have the lead right now. The Nuggets are also competing despite Jokic not playing great, which probably won’t happen for much longer.
Also, this will be just the fifth time since 2024 where the Nuggets are double-digit underdogs. Since November 2023, the Nuggets are 3-2 SU as double-digit underdogs. Since November 2022, the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs. I just don’t understand this line. The Nuggets aren’t going to roll over. Give me the points.