Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)
May 15, 2025 at 08:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets +4.5 — Over/Under: 216.5
The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are set to clash in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Thursday, May 15, 2025, at 5:30 PM PDT at Ball Arena in Denver. The Thunder lead the series 3–2, following a 112–105 victory in Game 5.
In Game 5, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 31 points, including crucial plays in the final minutes. Nikola Jokić delivered an outstanding performance for the Nuggets, recording 44 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists. Despite Jokić’s efforts, the Nuggets struggled to support him offensively, with limited contributions from other key players. The Nuggets face elimination and will need a collective effort to force a Game 7. While Jokić has been a consistent force, Denver’s success will depend on improved performances from players like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
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Jalen Williams Under 20.5 Points
Williams is averaging 21.6 points per game, ranking 25th in the league. His scoring efficiency was notable, with a field goal percentage of 48.4%, a three-point percentage of 36.5%, and a free throw percentage of 78.9%. Taking the over on William’s points was one of my most profitable strategies this NBA season, but the Nuggets have done a good job at limiting his scoring. He’s only scored over 20 points once in this series through 5 games. I expect Denver to continue to put an emphasis on slowing down Williams.
Michael Porter Under 8.5 Points
Porter is averaging 18.2 points per game, ranking 46th in the league. Porter Jr. showcased impressive shooting efficiency, converting 50.4% of his field goal attempts and 39.5% from beyond the arc. His regular season numbers were great, but they’ve decreased drastically in the postseason. He has scored over 8 points just once so far this series and is coming off a game where he only scored 2 points. He’s in a funk right now, and with the way he looked last game, I doubt we’ll see much of a change in this one.
Luguentz Dort Over 8.5 Points
Dort is averaging 10.1 points per game. Dort shot 43.5% from the field and an impressive 41.2% from three-point range, marking one of his most efficient shooting seasons to date. While not the Thunder’s primary scoring option, Dort’s consistent perimeter shooting and defensive prowess played a crucial role in the team’s success. We’ve seen Dort clear this number in 3 of the 5 games in this series. This Thunder team is giving him plenty of looks from beyond the arc. I like Dort to continue to quietly contribute to this offense.