Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)
May 15, 2025 at 08:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets +5 — Over/Under: 216.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet Thursday in the NBA playoffs Game 6 at the Ball Arena. Here’s a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction. This article will include a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to make the conference finals for the first time since the 2015-16 season. The Thunder are 7-2 SU in these playoffs and 3-1 SU on the road. The Thunder haven’t won a game six since August 2020.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 117.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 103.8 points on 40.8 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28 points and 6.6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 20.7 points and 5.2 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 9.2 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 32.6 percent from beyond the arc and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 31.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.1 rebounds per game.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets look to force a game 7 on Sunday. The Nuggets are 6-6 SU in these playoffs. The Nuggets have split their last 10 playoff games overall. The Nuggets have won four of their last six game 6s.
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 107.2 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 111.2 points on 46.7 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.5 points and 12.9 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 22.3 points and 4.9 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc and 75.4 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 35.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.9 rebounds per game.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Nuggets have won each of their last five games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Thunder have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last 11 games between the Thunder and Nuggets at Ball Arena.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won 13 of their last 15 road games following a win.
- The Nuggets have lost three of their last four games against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 night games against the Nuggets at Ball Arena.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
- Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
- Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Injury Report
The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.
The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II. Hunter Tyson will be out with an ankle injury. Tyson has played just 12 minutes in this series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
The Thunder will continue to get love from oddsmakers and bettors as they’re 58-30-4 ATS on the season. OKC is the safest and most profitable bet in sports. With that said, the Nuggets have played OKC tough in this series and with a bounce here or a bounce there, this is a different series. The Nuggets win game 5 if anybody was willing to help Jokic in the fourth quarter. The good news is Jokic has found his form after struggling the first few games. Also, the Nuggets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 home games as an underdog, a stretch that goes back to April 2022. The Nuggets have also covered their last four home playoff games as an underdog, which includes three covers this postseason. I kind of expect this series to go the distance, but I’ll take the points with the Nuggets for insurance.