Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction NFL Picks 1/5/25

David Racey

11 months ago

New England Patriots (3-13) vs Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Game Info: Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: Betting Odds: New England Patriots +2.5 / Buffalo Bills -2.5 — Over/Under: 38.5

In this article, we will formulate a Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 18 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 13-3 this year after they defeated the Jets by a score of 40-14 in their last game. Buffalo scored the first 40 points in the game, but they did allow 14 late points to ruin the shutout. The Bills outgained New York by a total of 348-281, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 8-14 on third down in the game. Josh Allen threw for 182 yards and two touchdowns, while James Cook rushed for 53 yards and one score in the game.

Prior to that win, the Bills defeated the Patriots by a score of 24-21 and the Lions by a score of 48-42. Buffalo has won three games in a row and 10 of their last 11, and they have clinched the AFC East Title. The Buffalo offense has scored 31.8 points per game with 234.1 passing yards and 131.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.6 points per game this season. Josh Allen has completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Khalil Shakir has caught 76 passes for 821 yards and four scores this year. Buffalo does plan to rest some of their starters for this game, so that needs to be monitored as we get closer to kickoff.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are 3-13 this season after they lost to the Chargers by a score of 40-7 in their last game. New England cut the deficit to 17-7 in the second quarter, but they were outscored 23-0 the rest of the way for the blowout loss. The Patriots were outgained by a total of 428-181, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 2-10 on third down in the game. Drake Maye threw for 117 yards and one touchdown, while DeMario Douglas caught four passes for 46 yards and one score in the loss.

Prior to that game, the Patriots lost to the Bills by a score of 24-21 and the Cardinals by a score of 30-17. New England has lost six games in a row and they are last in the AFC East standings, one game behind the Jets. The New England offense has scored 16.6 points per game with 172.6 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 25.1 points per game this season. Drake Maye has completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while Hunter Henry has caught 66 passes for 674 yards and two scores this year. It is possible the Patriots will turn to a different quarterback in this game, but I think it will most likely be Maye under center.

Why the Bills will beat the Patriots

The Bills have won each of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.
The Patriots have lost each of their last nine games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a Division win.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
The Patriots have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games at Gillette Stadium following a loss.
The Bills have won the first half in five of their last six games as favorites following a home win.

Total Points Facts

Each of the Patriots’ last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the last seven games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Nine of the Bills’ last 11 road games played on the East Coast have gone UNDER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

Austin Hooper has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six Sunday games as underdogs.
Drake Maye has recorded 222+ passing yards in four of the Patriots’ last five Sunday games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 60+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 46+ rushing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC East opponents.
Drake Maye has recorded 22+ completions in four of the Patriots’ last five games against AFC opponents.
Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bills’ last eight day road games against teams on a losing streak.
Dawson Knox has recorded 10+ receiving yards in 15 of his 16 previous Sunday appearances with the Bills as road favorites.
Josh Allen has recorded 280+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last four Sunday road games.
Josh Allen has recorded 67+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four January road games.
Josh Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last five games at Gillette Stadium.
Josh Allen has recorded 20+ completions in seven of the Bills’ last eight Sunday games as road favorites.
Heading into Week 18, James Cook ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 18, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 points per game (2.3) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in average punt return (14.3 yards) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in Q4 points per game (8.7) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in H2 points per game (17.3) this season.