Houston Texans (8-5) vs Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Game Info: Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 1:00 pm (NRG Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: Houston Texans -3 / Miami Dolphins +3 — Over/Under: 50.5
The Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans meet Sunday in NFL action from NRG Stadium. Here’s a Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Dolphins vs Texans pick. We will examine:
The Miami Dolphins’ recent form and player performance
The Houston Texans’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Dolphins
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Texans
Recent betting trends in games played between Dolphins and Texans
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Dolphins vs Texans game
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Dolphins’ year started out on a 2-6 run with losses to the Bills, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Cardinals and Bills again. Miami would win three straight over the Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots before another loss to the Packers.
In their last outing versus the Jets, the Dolphins fought back from a 23-15 fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime and eventually take the win 32-26. Tua Tagovailoa finished with 331 yards and two scores. Tyreek Hill caught 10 balls for 115 yards and a touchdown as the lead receiver.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
Over on the Houston side, they opened on a 6-2 run with wins over the Colts, Bears, Jaguars, Bills, Patriots, and Colts again. The Texans have gone 2-3 since then with losses to the Jets, Lions, and Titans alongside wins over Dallas and Jacksonville.
In the matchup with the Jags back on December 1, the Texans held a 16-6 edge going into the final quarter but had to hang on for a tense 23-20 win. CJ Stroud finished on 242 yards and a TD, while Joe Mixon led the rush with 101 yards and a score from 20 carries.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight December games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Texans’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Joe Mixon has recorded 101+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his last four home appearances.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 274+ passing yards in four of the Texans’ last five home games against AFC opponents.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 119+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with the Texans as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Nico Collins has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 regular season home appearances against AFC opponents.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 23+ completions in five of the Texans’ last six Sunday games as home favorites.
- Heading into Week 15, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (13) this season.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- De’Von Achane has recorded 63+ rushing yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five regular season games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his 10 previous December appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three Sunday games.
- Jonnu Smith has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last five games following a win.
- De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last five Sunday games.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 28+ completions in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Dolphins’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 15, De’Von Achane is one of only three players in the NFL to record 3+ rushing and 3+ receiving TDs this season.
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Prediction
I’ll stay with Houston coming off their bye week. Probably not touching this one, though. The Texans had some trouble shaking off a struggling Jaguars team in their last outing but eventually gained 326 yards and 20 first downs in the three-point win. Houston has scored 23 or more points in four straight games but they’re just 2-2 in that time. The Texans’ scoring averages paint a much clearer picture: Houston scores 23.7 points per game this year with 22.2 points allowed on the other side. It’s no wonder they’ve played so many tight games this season.
As for Miami, on Sunday they were in trouble after the first three quarters but eventually pulled off the gutsy overtime win in their last outing. The Dolphins posted 28 first downs and 375 total yards in that one but did give up 402 yards to a bad Jets team on the other side. Miami has held opponents to fewer than 20 points in three of their last four wins though, so Houston is going to have to hit the gas on offense if they want a home cover/victory.