New York Jets (4-12) vs Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Game Info: Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 4:25 pm (MetLife Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: New York Jets +2.5 / Miami Dolphins -2.5 — Over/Under: 41.5
The Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets meet Sunday in NFL action from MetLife Stadium. Here’s a Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Dolphins vs Jets pick. We will examine:
The Miami Dolphins’ recent form and player performance
The New York Jets’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Dolphins
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Jets
Recent betting trends in games played between the Dolphins and Jets
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Dolphins vs Jets game
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Dolphins stumbled to a 2-6 start this year, beating only the Jaguars and Patriots along the way. Miami got better with a 5-2 run over their next seven games, though. Those wins came courtesy of the Rams, Raiders, Patriots, Jets and 49ers.
In their matchup with the Browns on Sunday, the Dolphins held a modest 6-3 edge by the break. Miami scored a TD in both the third and fourth quarters, holding off Cleveland for a 20-3 finish. QB Tyler Huntley logged 225 yards and a score, while also leading the rush on seven carries for 52 yards and another TD. Tyreek Hill was the leading team receiver with 105 yards off nine catches.
This year the Dolphins average just 20.3 points per game, but their defense is keeping things together on 20.8 points allowed per game. Miami averages 221.1 yards per game via the pass, with 21 touchdowns and eight picks. On the ground the Dolphins average 103.8 yards per game and they’ve scored 11 times.
New York Jets Betting Preview
Over on the Jets’ side, they won two of their first three games. New York hit the skids with a 1-9 run after that, featuring losses to the Broncos, Vikings, Bills, Steelers, Patriots, Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, and Dolphins. The Jets would beat the Jaguars before falling to the Rams.
Matched up against Buffalo on Sunday, the Jets took yet another blowout loss. New York was down 12-0 after two quarters and eventually limped to a 40-14 result. QB Aaron Rodgers was pulled after a 40-0 start in favor of Tyrod Taylor, who would notch 83 yards and a pair of pass TDs. Breece Hall logged 45 yards on 10 carries and Garrett Wilson led the receivers on seven grabs for 66 yards and a TD.
The Jets’ offense has been pretty abysmal this year, even with Rodgers behind center. New York averages just 19.1 points per game. With 27 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions, the Jets also average 216.1 yards per game through the air. On the ground, New York is even worse with 90.2 yards per game and just eight scores.
Why the New York Jets will win
- The Dolphins have lost each of their last seven road games in January.
- The home team has won five of the last six games between the Dolphins and Jets.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight road games following a road win.
- The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last four January road games against AFC opponents.
- The home team has won the first half in six of the Dolphins’ last seven games.
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Dolphins have won 17 of their last 18 Sunday games against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Jets have lost each of their last six games against AFC opponents on a winning streak.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in 14 of their last 16 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Sunday games at MetLife Stadium.
- The Jets have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
- The Jets have lost the first half in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Dolphins’ last six Sunday games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Jets’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
New York Jets Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 261+ passing yards in each of his last four January appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Breece Hall has recorded 52+ rushing yards in seven of the Jets’ last eight games at MetLife Stadium.
- Garrett Wilson has recorded 66+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Jets’ last four games against AFC East opponents.
- Allen Lazard has recorded 39+ receiving yards in each of his six previous home appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Davante Adams has scored at least one touchdown in five of his six previous appearances at MetLife Stadium.
- Aaron Rodgers has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Jets’ last five home games against AFC opponents.
- Aaron Rodgers has thrown two or more touchdowns in 26 of his last 32 regular season home appearances against AFC opponents.
- Heading into Week 18, Garrett Wilson has recorded the most targets in a single game without a drop (23 against the Minnesota Vikings, Week 5).
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last six Sunday games played on the East Coast.
- Tyreek Hill has recorded 44+ receiving yards in 27 of his last 29 Sunday appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Jonnu Smith has scored the last touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last three games against AFC opponents.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 240+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last nine games as favorites following a road win.
- Raheem Mostert has recorded 29+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine road appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Raheem Mostert has recorded 45+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine road appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last seven appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three or more touchdowns in four of the Dolphins’ last seven games as favorites following a road win.
- Heading into Week 18, De’Von Achane is one of only two players in the NFL to record 500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards this season.
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Prediction
I’ll stay with Miami. Looking at the playoff picture, the Dolphins kept their Wild Card hopes alive with last weekend’s win. Miami needs a victory here paired with a Broncos loss in order to qualify for the final spot in the AFC. It’s been a pretty good run lately for the Dolphins, who posted 280 yards and 18 first downs in their 17-point win over Cleveland. It was a sloppy game though, with Miami accounting for 11 of the game’s 20 penalties.
As for New York, their acronym of Just End The Season has never been more apt. The Jets were a comedy of errors in the loss to a highly superior Bills team, giving up 348 yards and 23 first downs on defense while notching 169 pass yards and three turnovers offensively. New York has just 23 combined points over the last two games, and no one fears their defense anymore.
The last time these teams met up back on December 8 was a 32-26 overtime victory at home for the Dolphins. With the season on the line and a 6-2 record over the last eight games in tow, I like Miami to keep it rolling here and cover/win against an inept Jets squad.