New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction NFL Picks 1/5/25

David Racey

11 months ago

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) vs New Orleans Saints (5-11)

Game Info: Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 1:00 pm (Raymond James Stadium)

The Line: Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5 / New Orleans Saints +13.5 — Over/Under: 43.5

In this article, we will formulate a New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 5th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 18 matchup.

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The New Orleans Saints are 5-11 this year after they lost to Las Vegas by a score of 25-10 in their last game. New Orleans led 7-3 in the second quarter, but they were outscored 22-3 to end the game with a double-digit loss. The Saints were outgained by a total of 388-269, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 1-10 on third down in the game. Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Juwan Johnson caught six passes for 66 yards in the game.

Prior to that loss, the Saints lost to the Packers by a score of 34-0 and the Commanders by a score of 20-19. New Orleans has lost three games in a row and four of their last five, and they are third in the NFC South standings, one game ahead of Carolina. The New Orleans offense has scored 19.9 points per game with 203.8 passing yards and 118.1 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23.2 points per game this season. Spencer Rattler has completed 55.9% of his passes for 1,077 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Alvin Kamara (questionable) has rushed for 950 yards and six scores + 68 catches for 543 yards and two scores this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-7 this season after they defeated Carolina by a score of 48-14 in their last game. Tampa Bay led 27-14 at halftime and they were able to outscore Carolina 21-0 in the second half for the blowout win. The Buccaneers outgained Carolina by a total of 551-204, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 10-14 on third down in the game. Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries in the game.

Prior to that win, the Buccaneers lost to Dallas by a score of 26-24 but did beat the Chargers by a score of 40-17 before that. Tampa Bay has won five of their last six games and they need to win here to lock up the division. The Tampa Bay offense has scored 29.7 points per game with 252.6 passing yards and 147.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.9 points per game this season. Baker Mayfield has completed 71.7% of his passes for 4,279 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while Bucky Irving has rushed for 1,033 yards and seven scores this year.

Why the Buccaneers will beat the Saints

The Buccaneers have won each of their last eight games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
The Saints have lost four of their last five games.
The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games following a loss.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last four January games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
The favorites have won the first half in each of the Saints’ last four games.

Total Points Facts

Seven of the Saints’ last eight games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight home games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

Baker Mayfield has recorded 288+ passing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games.
Baker Mayfield has recorded 15+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games following a home win.
Rachaad White has recorded 66+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of the Buccaneers’ last nine home games against NFC opponents.
Jalen McMillan has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games.
Mike Evans has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances in Florida.
Bucky Irving has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last eight games against NFC opponents.
Baker Mayfield has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Buccaneers’ last five home games against NFC opponents.
Heading into Week 18, Baker Mayfield has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (5 vs Panthers, Week 17).

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

Jamaal Williams has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five January appearances against NFC opponents.
Juwan Johnson has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of the Saints’ last five road games.
Derek Carr has recorded 255+ passing yards in four of his last five January appearances.
Jamaal Williams has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of his last eight January appearances against NFC opponents.
Jamaal Williams has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven January appearances against NFC opponents.
Heading into Week 18, Derek Carr ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (2.8%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 18, the Buccaneers rank 1st in the NFL in Q1 points per game (7.2) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Buccaneers rank 31st in the NFL in average yards per punt (44.1) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Saints rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (379.0) this season.
Heading into Week 18, the Saints rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (139.1) this season.