Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

1 month ago

Dec 29, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Commanders Washington	Falcons Atlanta
Team Records	2-2	2-2
Where	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
When	Sunday, September 28, 2025
Time	01:00 PM EDT
TV	CBS

In this article, we will formulate a Commanders vs Falcons Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, September 28th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Falcons have a 1-2 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the NFC South. They are 1-2 ATS, 0-3 in Over/Under and have a 0-1 home record and 1-1 away record. The Falcons are coming off a 0-30 road loss in Carolina and are playing Buffalo and San Francisco next.

Offensively, the Falcons average 14.0 points per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 19.7 points per game, which is 13th. Atlanta averages 338.7 total yards per game, with 139.3 rushing yards and 199.3 passing yards per game. They allow 227.3 total yards per game, with 96.3 rushing and 131.0 passing yards per game.

Michael Penix leads the Falcons with 605 passing yards and 58.6% completed passes. Bijan Robinson leads the team in rushing yards, with 239, while Drake London has a team-high 16 caught passes for 159 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, Kaden Elliss has a team-high 18 total tackles, 10 of them solo. Brandon Dorlus leads the Falcons in sacks, with 1.5, while Xavier Watts has one interception.

Washington Commanders Preview

The Commanders have a 2-1 record this season and are sitting in 2nd place of the NFC East. They are 2-1 ATS, 1-2 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Commanders are coming off a 41-24 home win against the Las Vegas Raiders and are playing the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears next.

Offensively, the Commanders average 26.7 points per game, which ranks 7th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 19.0 points per game, which is 12th. Washington averages 354.0 total yards per game, with 157.3 rushing yards and 196.7 passing yards per game. They allow 329.7 total yards per game, with 100.7 rushing and 229.0 passing yards per game.

Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders with 433 passing yards and 59.7% completed passes. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team in rushing yards, with 125, while Deebo Samuel has a team-high 16 caught passes for 132 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 32 total tackles, 14 of them solo. Dorance Armstrong Jr. leads the Commanders in sacks, with three.

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

The underdogs have won three of the Falcons’ last four games.
The Commanders have lost six of their last seven September road games against NFC opponents.
The home team has covered the spread in each of the Commanders’ last four games.
The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September road games against NFC opponents.
The home team has won the first half in each of the Commanders’ last four games.
The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games as home underdogs.
The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Commanders’ last seven games.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

Darnell Savage Jr.’s team has won each of its last six games with him playing against Darnell Mooney.
The Falcons have lost each of their last four games played on the East Coast.
The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last six games played on the East Coast.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs.
The Commanders have won the first half in four of their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as favorites.
The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).

Total Points Facts

Each of the Falcons’ last seven games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Commanders’ last eight road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
Five of the last six Sunday games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last four home games.
Kirk Cousins has recorded 315+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
Darnell Mooney has recorded 46+ receiving yards in each of his last five home appearances against NFC opponents.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 86+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games against NFC East opponents.
Bijan Robinson has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games following a road loss.
Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
Heading into Week 4, Parker Romo has recorded the equal-most made field goals in a single game this season (5 vs Vikings, Week 2).

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

Terry McLaurin has scored two touchdowns in three of the Commanders’ last four Sunday regular season road games.
Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last seven Sunday road games.
Deebo Samuel has recorded 59+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine regular season appearances with his team as a road favorite.
Jayden Daniels has recorded 233+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances.
Zach Ertz has recorded 34+ receiving yards in each of his six previous regular season appearances against the Falcons.
Deebo Samuel has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his nine previous appearances with his team as a favorite on the East Coast.
Deebo Samuel has scored the last touchdown in four of his last five September appearances against NFC opponents.
Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in seven of the Commanders’ last eight games following a win.
Heading into Week 4, Jaylin Lane ranks 1st in the NFC for punt return yards (177) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

Falcons – two different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
Falcons – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
Commanders – three different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
Commanders – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.

Commanders vs Falcons Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, Washington won 30-24 in overtime at home. They have won their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Falcons, and are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 meetings. The Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

In this Commanders vs Falcons Prediction, the Commanders are coming as -1.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 45 points. I don’t trust either side of this matchup, as the Falcons have lost their only home game, and the Commanders have lost their only road game as well. Both teams are a combined 5-1 to the under this season, as they both have 33.7 and 41 average total points. With the total set at 45 points, I will go under that number.