Detroit Lions (15-2) vs Washington Commanders (12-5)
Game Info: Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 8:00 pm (Ford Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Detroit Lions -9.5 — Over/Under: 54.5
The Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions meet Saturday in NFL Divisional Round playoffs action from Ford Field. Here’s a Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Commanders vs Lions pick. We will examine:
The Washington Commanders’ recent form and player performance
The Detroit Lions’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Washington Commanders
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Detroit Lions
Recent betting trends in games played between the Commanders and Lions
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Commanders vs Lions game
Washington Commanders Betting Preview
The Commanders have had themselves quite a football season—likely giving their fans plenty of heart attacks via close wins in the process. Washington opened the year on an okay 7-5 run, losing to the Buccaneers, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys with wins otherwise versus the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, Panthers, Bears, and Giants during that time. Since then, however, it’s been all Ws for the Commanders. They closed out the season with victories versus the Titans, Saints, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys for a nice 12-5 regular-season record.
In their Wild Card playoff matchup versus the Buccaneers, Washington got their first postseason win in a whopping 6,945 days. It was a tight one though, as the Commanders left the locker room with a 10-10 tie and needed a last-minute field goal to power out a tense 23-20 victory. QB Jayden Daniels threw for 268 yards with two scores and also led the rush on 13 carries for 36 yards. Dyami Brown was the top receiver, catching a TD pass among his five grabs for 89 yards. Terry McLaurin caught the other score, finishing with seven grabs for 89 yards of his own.
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
Over on the Lions’ side, they’ve had a very impressive season—finally. Detroit went 3-1 with a loss to the Buccaneers among wins versus the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks as they headed into an early Week 5 bye. The Lions would hit a winning streak after that, taking out the Cowboys, Vikings, Titans, Packers, Texans, Jaguars, Colts, Bears, and Packers again before falling by six points to a great Bills squad. Detroit got back to winning after that, beating the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings to finish off a very nice 15-2 regular season.
Matched up against the rival Vikings in Week 18 on January 5, the Lions went into the fourth quarter with a 17-9 lead then scored a couple of unanswered touchdowns for a 31-9 victory in the end. Jared Goff posted 231 yards with one TD and two interceptions, but Jahmyr Gibbs did most of the heavy lifting on 23 carries for 139 yards and three scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the Lions’ top receiver with his six catches for 77 yards. Sam LaPorta did well also with seven catches on seven targets for 63 yards total.
Why the Detroit Lions Will Win
- The Lions have won each of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Commanders have lost each of their last four Divisional Round road games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games against NFC North opponents.
- The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last three January games against NFC opponents.
- The Commanders have lost the first half in each of their last five games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.
Why the Washington Commanders Will Win
- The Commanders have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a win.
- The Lions have lost 10 of their last 12 postseason games against NFC opponents.
- The Lions have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games following a home win.
- The Commanders have covered the spread in five of their last six January games as underdogs.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of the Lions’ last 10 home games against NFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Commanders’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts
- David Montgomery has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four home appearances against NFC East opponents.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Lions’ last four games at Ford Field against teams with a winning record.
- Jared Goff has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Lions’ last five games as favorites with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Jared Goff has recorded 273+ passing yards in four of the Lions’ last five January games.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Lions’ last nine games against teams on a winning streak.
- David Montgomery has recorded 20+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with the Lions as favorites following a win.
- David Montgomery has recorded 64+ rushing yards in four of his last five home appearances against NFC East opponents.
- David Montgomery has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances with the Lions as favorites against NFC opponents.
- Jahmyr Gibbs ranked 1st in the NFL in touchdowns (20) during the reg. season.
Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts
- Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last five games as underdogs following a win.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 29+ rushing yards in each of his last five appearances against NFC North opponents.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 24+ receiving yards in each of his last six road appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 12 appearances with his team as an underdog with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Jayden Daniels has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Commanders’ last five games following a win.
Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction
I’m going to stay with Detroit. This game is pretty satisfying if you enjoy parity in football, as both teams have a long history of struggling. The Lions are well-rested coming in following their win over a good Vikings team. Detroit posted 24 first downs and 394 yards of offense (216 passing) in that one but did have a couple of turnovers (both picks). The Lions are on a scoring tear lately; they’ve hit 31 or more points in five straight games—a 4-1 run. Detroit averages 33.2 points per game this year, giving up just 20.1 points per game on the other side. It’s going to be tough for the Commanders to find much room in a difficult road matchup here.
Speaking of the Commanders, they’ve been eking out wins by the proverbial skin of their teeth lately. The Bucs game was another example of that, as Washington finished with 350 yards (268 passing) and 22 first downs in a hotly-contested three-point win. Each of Washington’s last five games has been decided by six points or fewer (all wins), with four of those five coming by four points or fewer. So long as the Lions don’t come into this one overconfident, I think the extra prep time and comfortable home environment will help push Detroit to a cover as they move on in the postseason.