Maple Leafs vs Panthers Prediction 5/11/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Panthers prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, May 11th at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are up 2-1 in this series, but they lost game three in overtime by a score of 5-4. Toronto led 2-0 in the first period and 3-1 in the second, but they needed a goal in the third to tie the game, before losing in overtime. The Maple Leafs recorded 31 shots on goal, won 53.7% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Knies, Tavares (2), and Rielly, while Woll stopped 31 out of 36 shots in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Maple Leafs won games one and two by scores of 5-4 and 4-3. In their first round series, Toronto defeated Ottawa in six games, but they did lead 3-0 in that series, before losing games four and five. Toronto has scored 3.26 goals per game and they have allowed 2.79 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 77.9% on the penalty kill this season. William Nylander has led Toronto with six goals, nine assists, and 24 shots on goal, while Mitch Marner has added two goals, 10 assists, and 13 shots on goal. Joseph Woll is 2-1 with a 4.00 goals against average and an .869 save percentage in the postseason. 

Florida Panthers Betting Preview

The Florida Panthers are down 2-1 in the series, but they should have plenty of momentum after that big win in game three. Florida trailed 3-1 early in the second period, but they scored three goals to end the period with a 4-3 lead. The Panthers did allow Toronto to tie the game in the third, but they won late in overtime on a weird bounce. Florida recorded 36 shots on goal, won 46.3% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Florida got goals from Barkov, Gadjovich, Marchand, Reinhart, and Verhaeghe, while Bobrovsky stopped 27 out of 31 shots in the win. 

Prior to this series, the Panthers defeated the Lightning in five games in the first round. Florida did lose game three at home by a score of 5-1, but they were able to secure the series win with two victories in games four and five. Florida has scored 3.00 goals per game and they have allowed 2.72 goals against per game, while also going 23.5% on the power play and 80.7% on the penalty kill this season. Marchand, Reinhart, Lundell, and Luostarinen have led the Panthers with eight points each in the playoffs, while Reinhart has led shots on goal with 26. Sergei Bobrovsky is 5-3 with a 2.94 goals against average and an .875 save percentage in the postseason. 

Why the Maple Leafs will beat the Panthers 

• The Panthers have lost five of their last six games as home favorites following an overtime win.
• The Maple Leafs have won each of their last eight Sunday games.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last nine games as home favorites after coming off overtime.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Maple Leafs have won the second period in each of their last four games at Amerant Bank Arena when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Panthers’ last six games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Seven of the last eight night games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Panthers’ last four games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games at Amerant Bank Arena.

Florida Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Sam Bennett has recorded an assist in each of his last four home appearances against the Maple Leafs after playing less than 20 minutes in the Panthers’ last game.
• Sam Reinhart has scored at least one goal in each of the Panthers’ last seven Sunday home games.
• Aleksander Barkov has recorded at least one point in each of his last 10 appearances in night games at Amerant Bank Arena.
• Aleksander Barkov ranks T1st in the Eastern Conference for shootout goals (4) this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Matthew Knies has scored at least one goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games as road underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six games as road underdogs.
• William Nylander has recorded at least one point in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight playoff games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• William Nylander ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (45) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Florida Panthers rank 2nd in the league in short handed goals this season (12).
• The Florida Panthers rank 3rd in the league for shots per game this season (31.6).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T8th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.79).
• The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 2nd in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.23).

Maple Leafs vs Panthers Prediction 

Florida was able to get the comeback victory in game three on home ice in this series, but I have not been impressed with how they have looked. Toronto has been the much better team in my opinion, but not having their starting goalie is definitely a problem. On the other side, we have seen Bobrovsky let in some soft goals as well, which is very unlike him in the playoffs. This should be another close game that is very physical, but I like the Leafs to get the victory. 

David Racey's Pick: Maple Leafs ML