Sabres vs Penguins Prediction – NHL Picks 1/6/24

The Buffalo Sabres will play the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Buffalo has won two of their last three games, while Pittsburgh has won four of their last five. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Sabres vs Penguins prediction.

Sabres Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 16-19-4 this year after they defeated Montreal by a score of 6-1 in their last game. Buffalo led 2-1 after two periods and they were able to add four goals in the third period for the win. The Sabres out shot Montreal by a total of 38-33 and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. Buffalo lost to Ottawa by a score of 5-1 in the game prior to Montreal, but defeated Columbus by a score of 3-2 before that. The Sabres are scoring 3.00 goals per game and they are allowing 3.39 goals against per game, while going 14.2% on the power play and 78.3% on the penalty kill. Casey Mittelstadt has led Buffalo with 11 goals, 22 assists, and 63 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, who is 7-8-2 this season with a 3.13 goals against average and a .892 save percentage. 

Penguins Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 19-14-4 this season after they defeated Boston by a score of 6-5 in their last game. Pittsburgh led 5-2 in the second period, but allowed Boston to tie the game in the third, before getting a goal from Crosby for the win. The Penguins out shot Boston by a total of 35-29 and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Pittsburgh lost to Washington by a score of 4-3 in the game prior to Boston, but defeated the Islanders (twice) and Blues prior to that. The Penguins are scoring 3.08 goals per game and they are allowing 2.73 goals against per game, while going 14.4% on the power play and 82.6% on the penalty kill. Jake Guentzel has led Pittsburgh with 18 goals, 25 assists, and 133 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Pittsburgh is Tristan Jarry, who is 11-11-2 this season with a 2.58 goals against average and a .912 save percentage. 

Pittsburgh Penguins Team Facts

• The Penguins have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the puck line in each of the last six games between the Sabres and Penguins.
• The Penguins have won the second period in five of their last six home games against the Sabres following a road win.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Penguins’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Buffalo Sabres Team Facts

• The Sabres have lost each of their last nine games following a road win.
• The Sabres have covered the puck line in eight of their last nine games against the Penguins following a road win.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last four games as underdogs.
• The Sabres have lost the first period in each of their last six Saturday night games at PPG Paints Arena.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Sidney Crosby has scored at least one goal in five of the Penguins’ last six games as favorites.
• Erik Karlsson has recorded at least one point in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Sabres.
• Sidney Crosby has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Penguins’ last nine home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Ryan Graves has recorded two assists against the Sabres this season – most against any opponent.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Casey Mittelstadt has scored a goal in each of the Sabres’ last three games as underdogs against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Casey Mittelstadt has recorded at least one point in each of the Sabres’ last six games as underdogs against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• Tage Thompson has the equal-most multi-goal games for the Sabres this season (2).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 30th in the league in penalty minutes this season (291).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank 5th in the league in save percentage this season (.910).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank T30th in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (7).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 30th in the league for Period 1 goals scored per game this season (0.69).

Sabres vs Penguins Betting Prediction

Pittsburgh has played very well in recent games and they are coming off of a huge win on the road against Boston. The Penguins are 10-7-1 at home and they are one of the better defensive teams in the NHL this year. Buffalo has won two of their last three games, but those three games were against teams towards the bottom of the standings. The Sabres are 8-10-3 on the road and I do not trust them here. Pittsburgh is rolling right now and I think they win this game by at least two goals. 

David Racey's Pick: Penguins -1.5