Chelsea vs Newcastle 5/11/25 Prediction English Premier League Picks

Chelsea vs Newcastle 5/11/25: English Premier League free preview, analysis, prediction, odds and pick against the spread.

Chelsea will visit Newcastle on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at the St. James’ Park in this Week 36 Premier League Matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction. We will examine:

Newcastle recent form and player performance

Chelsea recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving Newcastle

Recent betting trends and streaks involving Chelsea

Recent betting trends in games played between the Chelsea and Newcastle

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Chelsea vs Newcastle game

Newcastle Preview

Newcastle has 63 points this season and are tied with Chelsea on the 4th place of the Premier League standings. Newcastle has a 19-10-6 record this season and have a 11-5-2 home record. They are coming off a 1-1 road draw against Brighton, and are 7-1-1 in their last 9 games and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Over is 8-2 in their last 10 overall games and 14-1 in their last 15 home games. There have been 3+ total goals scored in seven of their last eight games.

Newcastle is averaging 1.89 goals per game, which is the third-best in the league, while allowing 1.29 goals per game, which is 8th. Alexander Isak is the top scorer for Newcastle this season with 23 total goals, while Harvey Barnes follows with 9 goals. Jacob Murphy is the team’s top passer, with 10 assists made.

Chelsea Preview

Chelsea has 63 points this season and are tied with Newcastle on the 4th place of the Premier League standings. Chelsea has a 18-8-9 record this season and have a 7-6-4 road record. Chelsea is coming off a 3-1 home victory over Liverpool. They have four consecutive wins and have won three straight on the road. Over is 6-0 in their last 6 games, with their last two having a total of 4 and 5 goals.

Chelsea is averaging 1.77 goals per game, which is tied for 6th-best in the league, while allowing 1.17 goals per game, which is the third-best. Cole Palmer is the top scorer for Chelsea this season with 15 total goals, while Nicolas Jackson follows with 10 goals. Cole Palmer is also the team’s top passer, with 8 assists made.

Why Newcastle will win

• Newcastle United has won each of its last five EPL home matches.
• Newcastle United has won eight of its last 10 EPL home matches.
• The favorite has won 10 of Newcastle United’s last 11 EPL matches.
• The home team has won five of the last six EPL matches between Newcastle United and Chelsea.
• The home team has won 11 of Chelsea’s last 14 EPL matches.

Why Chelsea will win

• Chelsea has won seven of its last eight EPL matches against Newcastle United following a league win.
• Chelsea has won each of its last three EPL matches.

Total Points Facts

• The ‘Both Teams to Score’ market has hit in each of the last four EPL matches between Newcastle United and Chelsea.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in each of Newcastle United’s last 11 EPL home matches.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in each of Newcastle United’s last 10 EPL matches as a home favorite.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in six of Newcastle United’s last seven EPL matches.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in 11 of Newcastle United’s last 13 EPL matches as a favorite.

Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction

Both teams are tied 1-1 wins this season, with each one having won at home. Newcastle won by 2-0 for the English Cup, while Chelsea won by 2-1 for the Premier League. Both teams are a perfectly balanced 3-3-2 in their last 8 overall meetings, while Newcastle has won their last three home meetings against Chelsea. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 overall meetings, and Both teams to score – Yes is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction, Newcastle is coming as +115 home favorites. This one is as close as it gets, as both teams are tied in the 4th place of the Premier League nad need every win they can get, in order to stay within the top-5 places that lead to next season’s UEFA Champions League.

Both teams are coming in very good form into this matchup, so I see no value on either side. Both teams have been involved in some higher scoring games lately, as they are 14-2 to the over in their last 16 games combined, and only one of Newcastle’s last 15 home games was a low-scoring one. With both teams averaging 3.66 goals combined this season, I expect a high-scoring affair, so take the over 3 goals in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 3