Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction 5/14/25 Italian Open Tennis Picks

Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. Here’s our Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction. This preview will also include an Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti pick.

Alexander Zverev Preview

Alexander Zverev earned a highly satisfying win over Arthur Fils in the round of 16 to keep his title defense alive. The German beat his French nemesis 7-6, 6-1 to progress. As the scoreline suggests, the first set was very tight. Both players dropped their serve at least twice, and it was back and forth for most of it. Fils saved two set points to force a tie-break, but it was Zverev who made a better start in the break with two early mini breaks. The second second held his nerve to close it out.

Fils’ level reduced dramatically in the second set. Zverev secured three breaks of serve to win in straight sets. He finished the match with eight and zero double faults. Zverev landed 73% of first serves in play and won 72% of first serve points (34/47). He won 41% of second serve points (7/17) and saved five of seven breakpoints. Zverev has beaten Ugo Carabelli and Vilius Gaubas earlier in the tournament. He will be chasing his sixth semifinal in Rome when he takes on Lorenzo Musetti.

Lorenzo Musetti Preview

Lorenzo Musetti overcame 2023 champion Daniil Medvedev in a rain-interrupted match. Musetti took the first set of their last 16 match 7-5 with a late break of serve in the 11th game before serving for the set successfully. In the second set, the Italian broke Medvedev in the opening game of the second set and held that advantage until 5-4, 30-30, when the heavens opened. The match was suspended for almost three hours. Upon resumption, Musetti won the two points he required to seal a 7-6, 6-4 victory.

Musetti finished the match with four aces and zero double faults. Musetti landed 60% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (27/35). He won 70% of second serve points (16/23) and saved two of three breakpoints. This is Musetti’s career-best run in Rome and improves to 13-2 on clay in 2025.

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti Head-To-Head

Zverev and Musetti have met three times on tour. Musetti leads 2-1 with victories at the Paris Olympics and the Vienna Open last season. Zverev’s solitary win was at the 2022 Madrid Open.

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

I’m backing Musetti at plus money. This is his career-best run in Rome in what will eventually be his career-best season. He’s outperformed Zverev marginally on clay this season, albeit while still missing a title in his collection. That won’t matter though, because he’s brimming with confidence, and I wouldn’t put a ceiling to what he can achieve on this surface. He’s faced some of the tour’s best and beaten them multiple times. The unforgiving Italian crowd might also be a factor here, and they could be all over Zverev. This will be a tall order for the defending champion.

Nur Said's Pick: Lorenzo Musetti in three sets