Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction 5/12/25 Rome Tennis Picks

Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini meet in the third round of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Monday, May 12, 2025. Here’s our Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini prediction. This preview will also include a Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini pick.

Casper Ruud Preview

Casper Ruud is the sixth seed in Rome. He needed three sets to overcome Alexander Bublik in his opening match at the Italian Open. The Norwegian won the first set 6-4 after breaking Bublik in the 10th game. In the second set, Bublik made a strong start, breaking the Ruud serve twice to take a commanding 4-1 lead. Although he relinquished one of the breaks back, the insurance break helped him serve for the set at the second attempt. 

In the decider, one break was all that Ruud required to get the job done, although it took him three match points to see off the Kazakhstani. Ruud extends his winning run to seven matches. He lifted his first Masters 1000 title in Madrid a week ago. He improves his clay-court record for the season to 10-2. Ruud lost in the second round in Rome last season, but can gain points and rise in the rankings if he makes a deep run next week.

Matteo Berrettini Preview

Matteo Berrettini defeated Great Britain’s Jacob Fearnley in straight sets to reach the third round in Rome. The match took 23 games to decide. Berrettini prevailed 6-4, 7-6 in just under two hours. In the victory, Berrettini hit six winners and two double faults. He landed 67% of first serves in play and won 77% of first serve points (34/44). Berrettini won 68% of second serve points (15/22) and saved one of two breakpoints.

Berrettini improves to 4-2 on clay and is 13-9 on the win-loss column in 2025. One of his defeats on clay was a retirement in Madrid. His only completed defeat came in Monte Carlo against Lorenzo Musetti. This is Berrettini’s first appearance in his home tournament since 2021. His best result was reaching the quarterfinal in 2020, where his campaign was ended by Ruud.

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Head-To-Head

Ruud and Berrettini have played seven times on the ATP level. Ruud has a slender 4-3 lead. Ruud also leads their clay-court head-to-head 3-1.

Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Ruud and Berrettini have an interesting rivalry with seven matches between them. As tight as the head-to-head suggests, only two of the seven meetings were settled in straight sets. But I’m going with the overs here, which scream value. Berrettini is about a big serve and a big forehand, and that wins plenty of big points. He’s also not afraid of throwing in a drop shot and using his backhand slice expertly to tear the pace of the ball. That said, Ruud is a patient point constructor who will rally for as long as the match goes. Don’t expect quick sets here, and I can only imagine at least one tie-break set if Ruud’s return game is on point.

Nur Said's Pick: Over 22.5 games in the match