Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns Prediction 5/15/25 Italian Open Tennis Picks

Jasmine Paolini and Peyton Stearns meet in the semifinals of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Thursday, May 14, 2025. Here’s our Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns prediction. This preview will also include a Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns pick.

Jasmine Paolini Preview

Jasmine Paolini is coming off a dramatic three-set win over World No. 11 Diana Shnaider. Paolini took two hours and 25 minutes to beat the Russian lefty and reach the Italian Open semifinals for the first time. Paolini lost the first set in a tie-break after she led 4-0 and served for it at 6-5. She was on the break of defeat when she trailed 0-4 in the second set, but remarkably produced her own comeback.

Paolini won six straight games to level the match. In the third set, she recovered from going a break down to win 6-2. Paolini landed 79% of first serves in play during the match and won 56% of first serve points (40/71). She won 32% of second serve points (6/19) and saved two of eight breakpoints. Paolini improves from last year’s second round defeat in Rome. She has now reached at least the semifinals in three of her last four tournaments including two on clay. She has not reached a final this season.

Peyton Stearns Preview

Peyton Stearns entered the 2025 Italian Open outside the top 40 places, but has marked her debut in Rome with a stunning semifinal run. Stearns began her tournament with a couple of routine wins over Nuria Brancaccio and Anna Kalinskaya. But it was in the third round when she started to craft history. Stearns beat Australian Open champion Madison Keys 2-6, 6-2, 7-6.

In the last 16, she inflicted Naomi Osaka’s first defeat in eight matches, winning 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. And in the quarterfinal match which finished past midnight, she beat former champion Elina Svitolina 6-2, 4-6, 7-6. Stearns is the first player in the Open Era to win three successive WTA main draws in a third-set tie-break. She has an 8-2 record on clay this season and is projected to break into the Top 30 next week, and will be seeded at the French Open.

Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns Head-to-Head

Paolini and Stearns have never played before this. The head-to-head is deadlocked at 0-0.

Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns Prediction

This is officially Peyton Stearns’ breakthrough tournament on the main stage. She’s always had the game to excel on clay. The former NCAA champion’s only WTA title to date was on the red dirt in Rabat and she’s been a menace for the past week, outmuscling some of the biggest hitters on tour. Stearns still has more room to develop and add layers to her game and she’s still quite capable of keeping up this hot streak. The two-week format at these WTA 1000 events gives her an extra day to recuperate and recharge and she’s dispelled concerns of fatigue in her last match. Backing Stearns at +170 seems too big to turn down here even when she’s expected to play second fiddle against the home favorite.

Nur Said's Pick: Peyton Stearns in three sets