New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 9/19/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 14, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) drives and scores in the paint during the first half against the New York Liberty during game one of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs round one at PHX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Liberty New York
Mercury Phoenix
Team Records
27-17
27-17
Where
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
When
Friday, September 19, 2025
Time
09:00 PM EDT
TV
ESPN2
The New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA First Round playoff action from the Barclays Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Game Two Recap
The Phoenix Mercury forced a game three with an 86-60 win over the Liberty in game two. Alyssa Thomas led the way with 15 points along with a team-high 7 assists and 6 rebounds and Satou Sabally had 15 points with 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Kahleah Copper had 14 points as did DeWanna Bonner, who chipped in 14 points on 6 of 9 shooting with a team-high 8 rebounds. Kathryn Westbeld added 10 points with a pair of threes to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix in the win. Emma Meesseman was the only Liberty player to score in double figures with 11 points and 6 rebounds off of the bench while Jonquel Jones had a team-high 13 rebounds.
New York Liberty Stats
Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty in scoring with 18.8 PPG with 5.4 APG and 4.9 RPG while Breanna Stewart has 18 PPG with 6.6 RPG and 3.6 APG. Jonquel Jones has 14.7 PPG with a team-high 8.6 RPG to lead the Liberty in rebounding and Natasha Cloud has 10.1 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 5.3 APG to lead the Liberty in assists. Emma Meesseman also has 13.6 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Liberty so far this season. Kennedy Burke has also chipped in 8.4 PPG and 2.2 RPG while Leonie Fiebich has 8.8 PPG with 3.7 RPG as well this season. As a team, New York is averaging 85.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 35.7% from three and 83.3% from the foul line this season.
Phoenix Mercury Stats
Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year. As a team, Phoenix is averaging 83.1 PPG on 43.4% shooting from the field, 33.8% from three-point range and 78.8% from the foul line so far this season.
New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 19, 2025
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Mercury have won each of their last seven night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Liberty have lost nine of their last 11 night games against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs after losing as favorites.
The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Liberty’s last four games at PHX Arena.
Why the New York Liberty will win
The underdogs have won four of the Mercury’s last five games.
The Mercury have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the Mercury’s last seven games.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Mercury’s last eight night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Liberty’s last six games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.
New York Liberty Player Facts
Sabrina Ionescu ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for assists per game (5.7) this season.
Leonie Fiebich ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.5%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.
The New York Liberty rank 1st for opponent three-point percentage this season (31.5%).
The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (83.7%).
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m leaning towards the Liberty here. Perhaps New York is more banged up than they’re letting on, but this is still a Liberty team that’s already won on the road in this series, and at a certain point, i have to think that hte experience plays a factor. Not to say that Phoenix doesn’t have it, but the Liberty just played in a high-stakes winner take all game five in the WNBA finals last year and came out smelling like roses. I think that has to count for something and to get a free bucket with the defending champs here is good enough for me. Give me the Liberty and the points.
